World Bank improves Ukraine's economic growth forecast for 2023 to 3.3%

MOSCOW. Oct 4 (Interfax) - The World Bank (WB) has increased its growth forecast for Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 from 2.1% to 3.3%, Ukrainian media reported, citing the Economic outlook report published on Tuesday.

According to the report, the forecast for the GDP dynamic in 2022 was also improved, as currently the World Bank expects the country's economy to decline by 35% compared with a fall of 45.1% expected in June.

Additionally, the report provided a GDP growth forecast for 2024 at 4.1%.

"Growth is expected to resume in 2023, but remain weak, and recovery efforts will gain momentum towards the end of the forecast period," the report said.

The WB expects the impact of the crisis to be seen beyond the short term.

Based on a global poverty line of $6.85 per capita a day (PPP 2017), poverty in Ukraine is projected to rise from 5.5% in 2021 to 25% in 2022, with high risks of a worsening assessment if the crisis and energy security situation deteriorate.

The WB also improved its estimate Russia's GDP decline from 8.9% to 4.5%, but downgraded it for next year from 2% to 3.6%, while expects to see a slight increase of 1.6% in 2024.

As reported, this year the Ukrainian government expects the GDP to fall by 33.2% and grow by 4.6% next year.

The National Bank of Ukraine predicts a 33.4% GDP drop this year and its rise by 5.5% in 2023.