Ukraine capable of exporting 5 mln tonnes of agricultural products per month, realistic estimate is 3.5 mln-4.5 mln - UkrAgroConsult
MOSCOW. Aug 22 (Interfax) - Ukraine is capable of exporting 5 million tonnes of agricultural products per month thanks to the unblocking of Black Sea ports, yet the monthly amount of 3.5 million to 4.5 million tonnes looks more realistic, the Ukrainian media said with the reference to the website of the UkrAgroConsult consulting agency on Monday.
The website said that the marketing year 2022/2023 (July to June) will be unusual due to the lack of traditional seasonal peaks in exports, which occur at the time of harvesting.
"If we take a look at the monthly exports since the beginning of the marketing year 2018-2019, we will clearly see the seasonal variations. Arbitrarily, there are three stages (waves) in Ukrainian grain exports: the wheat and barley wave (that begins in July-August), the first corn wave (that begins in September-October), and the second corn wave (that begins in February-March when the South American corn disappears from the global market)," the agency said.
There will be no significant export peaks this season due to the substantial amounts of last year's harvest ready for exports, yet the progressive increase in shipments will be palpable as seaports normalize their operation, it said.
"The current shipments from Odesa ports are still passing through a pilot period, and market actors are continuing to assess the prospects. So it is too early to say that Ukraine will be able to fully unlock its grain export potential, while exports may significantly grow in August," UkrAgroConsult said.
As reported earlier, Ukraine has exported 2.98 million tonnes of grain crops since the beginning of the marketing year 2022/2023, including 1.94 million tonnes of corn (65% of all shipments), 783,000 tonnes of wheat (26%), and 257,000 tonnes of barley (8.8%).
In addition, Ukraine shipped 2.26 million tonnes of grain, oilseeds and agricultural products by all means of transportation in July 2022, which is 22.7% more than in June.
