Ukraine's wheat export in 2022-2023 marketing year may decrease 36% - forecast

MOSCOW. July 29 (Interfax) - Ukraine may export about 12 million tonnes of wheat in the 2022-2023 marketing year (July 2022 - June 2023), which is 36% lower compared with the amount exported in the 2021-2022 marketing year (18.7 million tonnes) and 28% less than in the 2020-2021 marketing year (16.6 million tonnes).

Ukrainian media reported with reference to the APK-Inform agency's website on Friday that the lower wheat export is likely due to an expected decline of Ukraine's gross grain harvest by 39% (to 52.3 million tonnes from 86 million tonnes) in the 2022-2023 marketing year compared to the previous one and the limited throughput capacity of the national export infrastructure.

Egypt and Indonesia have been the key importers of Ukrainian grain over the past several seasons, it said. In the 2021-2022 marketing year, their shares in the overall volume of Ukrainian grain exports were 16% and 14% respectively (2.9 million tonnes and 2.5 million tonnes). Egypt had increased purchases of Ukrainian wheat by 19% year-on-year and Indonesia by 2% year-on-year in the 2021-2022 marketing year.

Turkey became the third largest importer of Ukrainian wheat in the past marketing year, as the amount of wheat it bought from Ukraine more than doubled to 1.9 million tonnes from 794,000 tonnes and its share in Ukraine's overall exports increased to 10% from 5% over the year.

As reported earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a July report that it expected Ukraine to harvest 19.5 million tonnes of wheat, export 10 million tonnes, and consume domestically 10.2 million tonnes in the 2022-2023 marketing year. It also estimated Ukraine's corn harvest at 25 million tonnes, export at 9 million tonnes, and domestic consumption at 10.7 million tonnes.