IEA improves forecast for Russia's oil output from 10.37 mln bpd to 10.6 mln bpd in 2022

MOSCOW. July 13 (Interfax) - Russia's oil production surprised once again in June by having the world's largest increase in output, as rising domestic consumption has largely offset lower exports, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its July report.

Total crude oil, condensates and NGLs rose 490,000 bpd to reach 11.07 million bpd, down just 330,000 bpd from the level prior to the start of the special military operation in Ukraine. Gains in June were reportedly mostly owing to Rosneft and its Bashneft unit. The ExxonMobil-operated Sakhalin-1 Project in the country's Far East saw output of just 10,000 bpd versus 220,000 bpd before the conflict, according to IEA data.

"We expect Russian oil production to ease in July along with lower anticipated refinery throughput, and assume that it will continue to decline gradually as the EU embargo on Russian oil is phased in," the IEA said in the report.

According to the IEA, this would result in annual average output in 2022 of 10.6 million bpd, down 260,000 bpd year-on-year. The IEA had forecast in June that liquid hydrocarbon production in Russia would total 10.37 million bpd in 2022. "By the start of next year, we expect to see close to 3 million bpd shut in, which would drop total oil output to 8.7 million bpd," the IEA said, retaining the previous outlook.

Russian oil exports fell by 250,000 bpd month-on-month to 7.4 million bpd in June, the lowest level since August 2021. The decrease was because of oil this time, as shipments of petroleum products remained relatively stable at 2.4 million bpd. Meanwhile, export earnings increased by $700 million to $20.4 billion owing to higher oil prices, up 40% from last year's average, the IEA calculated.