Sovecon raises forecast for Russian wheat exports in new season to 42.6 mln tonnes
MOSCOW. June 30 (Interfax) - Analytics center Sovecon has raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2022-2023 agricultural year that begins in July by 0.3 million tonnes to a new record high of 42.6 million tonnes.
Exports will be supported by an anticipated record harvest that Sovecon estimated at 89.2 million tonnes, as well as relatively large carryover reserves that are concentrated primarily in the south, close to ports, the center said in a statement.
"Exports will also be supported by the extremely limited presence of Ukrainian wheat on the export market due to the war. Our baseline scenario assumes that the country's terminals will remain closed in the near future," Sovecon said.
The likely reduction of export duties could significantly accelerate Russian exports, while the biggest obstacle at the start of the season could be problems with chartering vessels, Sovecon said. Ship owners are still wary of sending ships to the region amid military operations and the risk of sanctions. Similar factors complicate settlements for Russian grain, the center said.