Ukraine might see exchange rate at about 40 hryvni/$1 - Concorde Capital
MOSCOW. June 1 (Interfax) - The Ukrainian currency's exchange rate could reach about 40 hryvni per $1, Oleksandr Parashchy, senior analyst at Concorde Capital, said during an online discussion arranged by CASE.
"A new exchange rate will be tested, and it is most likely to be an upward trajectory within the next five to six months. In my opinion, it's going to be closer to 40 hryvni for $1," Parashchy said.
Forecasting the hryvnia's real exchange rate against the U.S. dollar is extremely difficult now due to tectonic structural shifts in the national economy, Ukrainian media quoted Parashchy as saying. For instance, IT exports have been the second largest after food products since February 24, while previously it was mining and metals products.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) may change its monetary policy, he said.
At present, it is "wasting [foreign exchange] reserves to maintain the rate having nothing in common with reality. Therefore, I hope the National Bank will gradually change its policy," Parashchy said.
He also mentioned what he described as a huge "breach" in the balance of payments.
"For instance, so-called trade loans, which made a breach of nearly $4 billion in the balance of payments in March and April [...] This is a colossal problem and pressure on the [national] currency," Parashchy said.
"Hence, we have large breaches in the balance of payments anyway, and it is unclear for now how the NBU is going to 'heal' them. Thus, the rate of 29.25 hryvni per $1 will certainly not stay," he said.
Olena Belan, chief economist at Dragon Capital, said she expected Ukraine's GDP to decline by 30% in 2022, although the unblocking of the Ukrainian ports could reduce the economic slump to 22%-25%.
"GDP slump by 50% at the end of the year is a very pessimistic estimate. But I don't think this will happen. We could speak of 30% economic decrease. And if the ports are opened, we could speak about 22%-25% decrease," she said at the CASE online discussion.
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