31 May 2022 16:21

CBR forecast proceeding from conservative export outlook, remains valid after EU embargo - Yudaeva

MOSCOW. May 31 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) macro forecast updated in April proceeds from a conservative export outlook and thus does not require any revisions following the decision of the European Union to impose a partial embargo on imports of Russian oil, CBR First Deputy Governor Ksenia Yudaeva said during a press conference following publication of the regulator's financial stability report.

"The announcement was only made today, but discussions in principle had been taking place for a rather long time. At the time, when we were drawing up our forecast for the previous rate decision in April, discussions were already underway, and we factored a rather conservative trajectory of what might happened with exports in our forecast, Yudaeva said.

"We factored in a rather significant reduction in exports, so we believe this forecast remains relevant in terms of the situation in the economy and in the new conditions," she said.

According to the regulator's April forecast, Russian GDP will decline by 8-10% in 2022 and by 0-3% in 2023. Exports will consistently decline, from $505 billion in 2022 to $432 billion in 2023 and $405 billion in 2024.