SberCIB forecasting average ruble exchange rate of 100 rubles/$1 in 2022

MOSCOW. April 5 (Interfax) - SberCIB Investment Research is forecasting an average ruble rate of near 100 rubles/$1 in 2022 as its baseline scenario, the investment bank said a report.

"The Central Bank has already begun to gradually ease restrictions on capital flows, and at current USD/RUB levels of around 84 rubles/$1, the demand for currency has increased. Furthermore, imports will begin to recover sooner or later and capital operations with emerging market currencies will expand. This will increase the demand for foreign currency even more, and as a result, the average ruble exchange rate in 2022 could reach 100 rubles/$1," the report said.

Furthermore, according to analysts, increased inflation will play against the ruble.

At the same time, experts believe that stronger gains for the ruble to below 80 rubles/$1 cannot be ruled out, as there is still an imbalance between the supply of currency and the demand for it. Then restrictions on capital flows and compulsory sale of foreign currency proceeds may be eased, as sharp gains for the ruble will have a negative impact on budget revenues.

"These measures may return the ruble exchange rate above 80 rubles/$1. There may be no further weakening towards 100 rubles/$1 if importers manage to restructure their supply chains at an accelerated pace and inflation slows down more quickly. In this case, the average annual ruble exchange rate will be about 85-90 rubles/$1," the bank's analysts said.