AI to boost Russia's dialogue with U.S., Europe - MGIMO Rector Torkunov
MOSCOW. June 22 (Interfax) - Artificial intelligence could help reconcile the standpoints of various participants in international processes, as well as create mechanisms for scenario analysis and the search for mutually acceptable solutions in crises, Anatoly Torkunov, a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Rector of the Russian Foreign Ministry's MGIMO University, said in an interview with Interfax.
"Machine text analysis ensures precise interpretation, makes it possible to see the structure of international dialogue, and helps us understand our allies and opponents better. We are able to track their train of thought, which means we can predict their actions under particular circumstances to a certain degree. The precise interpretation of texts helps get rid of the problem of quotes outside the context and the subjective reading of documents," Torkunov said.
He referred to the 1970s when researchers from the MGIMO Problem Research Laboratory (currently known as the Institute for International Studies) developed a mathematical method for analyzing information generated at complex international negotiations.
"Analysis of a huge amount of negotiations, which led to the signing of the Helsinki Final Act, revealed that a compromise regarding two essential points - the inviolability of borders and human rights - finally had a positive result. The report prepared in the Foreign Ministry actually stated that the West was ready to trade its stance on strategic issues for Soviet concessions in the field of human rights," Torkunov said.
"Speaking of current problems, we can take the example of nuclear security. The existent arms control system is in crisis. Everyone agrees that it needs to be changed. But how are these problems and adjustments seen by nuclear states? There is need for a precise, detailed, and profound analysis of their political thinking. There is also need for conclusions to rely on the conclusive analysis of every available material," Torkunov said.
It would be necessary to repeat on a new technical level the studies which MGIMO scientists carried out 50 years ago and to provide a mathematical analysis of materials from European security negotiations, he said.
"It is also necessary to answer the question whether it is possible to find a resultant element in the approaches of various actors, despite obvious disagreements. Not just of Russia and the United States, but also of U.S. allies from the nuclear club, as well as of China, India, Pakistan, and other countries that possess or may possess the technology necessary for building a nuclear weapon. The use of artificial intelligence and machine text analysis in this area will eventually make the international dialogue, including that with partners from the United States and Europe, more open and productive," Torkunov said.
MGIMO scientists were able to predict an escalation of tensions in 2016 and the victory of Volodymyr Zelensky in the 2019 presidential race, he said.
Also, they studied the strategies of Ukrainian political elites for Donbas using analysis of Facebook's Ukrainian segment, Torkunov said.
"Methods of machine text analysis have been used. The result is quite convincing, but disappointing: on the whole, Ukrainian political elites do not view Donbas residents as their own and have no strategy for settling the conflict in the country's east," he said.
Speaking of the current objectives of his employees, Torkunov said that a group of specialists from the MGIMO Institute for International Studies led by Institute Director and acclaimed expert on the U.S. Andrei Sushentsov is analyzing the foreign political strategy of the United States in international crises.
"The idea is to estimate the degree to which Washington's policy in an acute international situation is determined by the long-term strategy and to decide whether this strategy includes an escalation scenario or whether this is a situational response to a sudden crisis," Torkunov said.
Studies of three recent crises involving the United States - the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Arab Spring in Egypt in 2011, and the strategy for the 2014 crisis in Ukraine - are based on mathematical analysis and information technologies, he said.
"Patterns indicating whether the U.S. course was strategic or situational are determined. In the future, it will be possible to detect those patterns during the early stages of new international crises and to predict the U.S. course," Torkunov said.
The ongoing situation linked to the coronavirus pandemic should also be studied in order to learn how states react to such crises, what happens with decision-making mechanisms, and how anti-crisis strategies are elaborated, he said.
"There is yet another issue, another aspect of the development of the modern world. A lot is being said, including in the West, about sort of 'a dusk of the West' and the loss of its dominance in global policy. And what is happening in the global movement of economic assets: capitals, raw materials, and the labor force? What are the opportunities and threats to Russia?" Torkunov said.
"These issues need to be studied, especially due to the increasing politicization of the global economy. In an increasing number of cases, leading states make strategic economic decisions on the basis of political considerations, rather than on the long-term benefit. So, fundamental and applied research can help change the vector, navigate between Scylla and Charybdis, and find a way, which will allow us to keep peace, stability, and security," he said.