Gazprom could post 70% drop in Q1 earnings
MOSCOW. Aug 25 (Interfax) - Gazprom could post a 70.6% drop in net profit to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), analysts from 16 investment banks and companies told Interfax in a consensus forecast.
The median net profit forecast is 79.6 billion rubles. The analysts expect revenue to have fallen 3% to 872 billion rubles and earnings before taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to be down 28% to 304 billion rubles.
Consensus forecast for Gazprom in Q1 2009:
| Bln rubles | Bln rubles | Bln rubles | $ bln | $ bln | $ bln | |
| Revenues | EBITDA | Net Income | Revenues | EBITDA | Net Income | |
| Goldman Sachs | 831,290 | 233,351 | 27,795 | 24,301 | 6,822 | 0,813 |
| Citi | 853,626 | 295,728 | 114,357 | 24,954 | 8,645 | 3,343 |
| UBS | 815,040 | 282,421 | 73,684 | 23,826 | 8,256 | 2,154 |
| Raiffeisenbank | 940,036 | 329,013 | 65,816 | 27,480 | 9,618 | 1,924 |
| Credit Suisse | 905,946 | 329,946 | 96,721 | 26,483 | 9,645 | 2,827 |
| Renaissance Capital | 870,674 | 304,262 | 94,091 | 25,452 | 8,894 | 2,751 |
| UniCredit | 844,082 | 347,143 | 95,064 | 24,675 | 10,148 | 2,779 |
| Troika Dialog | 812,714 | 288,168 | 40,605 | 23,758 | 8,424 | 1,187 |
| Gazprombank | 879,000 | 329,000 | 97,000 | 25,500 | 9,600 | 2,800 |
| Bank of America | 853,000 | 286,000 | 90,000 | 24,936 | 8,361 | 2,631 |
| VTB Capital | 935,691 | 338,933 | 104,779 | 27,353 | 9,908 | 3,063 |
| Uralsib | 830,000 | 342,000 | 131,000 | 24,263 | 9,998 | 3,830 |
| Alfa Bank | 939,008 | 318,190 | 84,638 | 27,557 | 9,338 | 2,484 |
| Bernstein | 921,980 | 285,750 | 50,010 | 27,173 | 8,422 | 1,474 |
| Deutsche Bank | 770,935 | 260,941 | 65,245 | 22,617 | 7,655 | 1,914 |
| J.P. Morgan | 955,900 | 289,500 | 42,700 | 28,086 | 8,505 | 1,253 |
| Consensus | 872,433 | 303,772 | 79,594 | 25,526 | 8,890 | 2,327 |
| 1Q08 | 902,944 | 422,036 | 273,439 | 37,242 | 17,407 | 11,278 |
| Change % | -3 | -28 | -71 | -31 | -49 | -79 |
VTB Capital, which gave the most accurate earnings forecast for the Russian gas giant in Q4 2008, said it thought the Q1 2009 figure would be 105 billion rubles, which is one of the highest forecasts.
Goldman Sachs said Q1 2009 was not easy for Gazprom. It said January's dispute with Ukraine and the general economic downturn had affected sales in Europe and the FSU. Gas prices had risen in Europe in the lag following the surge in oil prices in Q2 2008, but the drop in export volumes would have meant that Gazprom did not reap full benefit from these prices.
VTB Capital thinks revenue in Q1 2009 will be lower than in Q1 2008 and Q4 2008.
J.P. Morgan cautions that buying costly Central Asian gas will have affected EBITDA, and that net profit will have fallen due to estimated exchange-rate losses of 171 billion rubles caused by the ruble's devaluation.
Gazprom is expected to unveil the IFRS report early on August 26.