26 Aug 2009 19:52

Forecast for Russian oil production in 2030 lowered by 6.6% in Energy Strategy

MOSCOW. Aug 26 (Interfax) - The forecast for oil production in Russia in 2030 that is contained in the government's Energy Strategy for the next twenty years has been lowered by 6.6%, a source in the government told journalists on Wednesday.

Oil production is projected to total 530 million-535 million tonnes in 2030 in the latest draft of the Energy Strategy. The forecast was for oil production of 540 million-600 million tonnes in the previous forecast.

The forecast for gas production in 2030, on the contrary, was increased 4% to 880 billion-940 billion cubic meters (bcm) from 870-880 bcm.

The source said the production of petroleum products in Russia in 2030 would amount to 275 million-317 million tonnes, including 188 million tonnes of motor oil and 30 million tonnes of fuel oil. The previous forecast was for production of 285 million tonnes of petroleum products in 2030.

Exports of oil and petroleum products will total 329 million tonnes in 2030 under the latest forecast, which is unchanged from the previous version.

Gas exports should amount to 349-368 bcm in 2030 instead of 353-380 bcm as previously expected.

The strategy projects liquefied gas exports to rise to 14%-15% of gas exports.

Under the new Energy Strategy, the share of gas exports in the eastern direction will grow to 20% from 0% of total gas exports, while the share of oil shipped to the east will rise to 25% from 6%.

Reserves replacement calls for growth in reserves in new territories and offshore zones. Growth in recoverable oil reserves at offshore fields should come to at least 10%-15% of reserves replacement by 2030 and gas to at least 20%-25%. The ratio of annual growth in proven reserves to extraction for the main resources (oil, gas, coal and uranium) will be more than 1. The recovery ratio at fields should rise to 35%-37% by 2030.

Electricity production is to total 1.8 trillion-2.2 trillion kilowatt hours in 2030, according to the document. Installed capacity at Russian power plants is to grow to 355-445 gigawatts by 2030 from the current 225 gigawatts.

The efficiency ratio at gas and coal-fired power plants will grow 40% by 2030, while the ratio at nuclear power plants will increase 15%.

Total investment in the fuel and energy industry is estimated at 60 trillion rubles prior to 2030, according to the Energy Strategy.

The document also envisions a decline in the expenditure of fuel and energy resources in the Russian economy by 300 million tonnes before 2030. The consumption of energy resources is to grow by at least 40% by this time.

The share of exchange trading of energy resources in Russia should amount to at least 30% of the volume of the domestic market by 2030.

The Energy Strategy calls for the share of gas in overall energy consumption to decline to 47% by 2030 from 52% and the share of non-fuel energy to rise to 14% from the current 10%. At the same time, there will be changes to the ratio of gas and coal prices under which the former will become more expensive than the latter.

The source said that the Energy Strategy envisions a conservative forecast for oil prices of $70-$80 per barrel in 2009 prices in the period until 2030.

The strategy does not call for the Natural Resources Extraction Tax (NRET) to be replaced with an excess profit tax, but it does envision stimulating tax measures, specifically the reduction of the NRET and export duties for several fields to zero, including for coal fields. One such field will be the Elginskoye coal field.

"The government will apply mechanisms in the future to send business to new raw commodity destinations," the source said.

The Energy Strategy contains three stages. In the first stage from 2013-2015, Russia plans to move past the crisis in the energy industry and create conditions for growth. In the second stage from 2015-2022, the country plans to raise overall energy efficiency on the basis of the innovative development of the fuel and energy industry. The third stage from 2022-2030 will be dedicated to the efficient use of energy resources and will mark the start of the transition to non-fuel types of energy.