7 Sep 2009 17:47

Russian GDP could grow up to 4.5% in H2

MOSCOW. Sept 7 (Interfax) - Russian GDP could grow 3.9%-4.5% in the second half of 2009 compared with the first half, Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina said at a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

"I'm hoping that 2010 will be positive," she said.

Nabiullina said industrial output grew 3.6% in July compared with June, and that this was the third consecutive month-on-month growth.

The industrial revival began with export-focused and import-substituting sectors, but it has already spread to machinery and equipment manufacturing, Nabiullina said. However she said it was necessary "to have a positive dynamic in the funding of enterprises."

Month-on-month investment growth in July was 0.3%, Nabiullina said, adding that July was the first month of positive investment growth in 2009. "This means we can hope we passed the lowest point in economic development in the summer," she said.

Nabiullina said Russia had zero inflation in August this year, for the first time since August 2001, the last time such low inflation was recorded. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August 2008.

"We have revised the inflation forecast and we think that inflation [in 2009] could be 11.6%-12%," she said. The Econ Ministry is planning 9%-10% inflation in 2010, she said.

Analysts said in a consensus forecast at the end of August that they thought Russia would have 11.1% inflation in 2009. Russia had 13.3% inflation in 2008, the highest yearly rate since the 15.1% recorded in 2002.