Russian industry could plummet 12% in Sept
MOSCOW. Sept 30 (Interfax) - Russian industrial output could plummet 12% in September and inflation could be 0.2%, analysts told Interfax in a consensus forecast.
Official data for August showed that the summer optimism over economic recovery was premature and that growth was not robust. Both domestic investment and consumer demand continued to contract in August, and the signs of revival in the summer months had more to do with external demand and exports, driven by positive oil price trends. The analysts therefore continue to exercise caution and are expecting the pause in growth to continue in September.
Consensus forecast of macroeconomic indicators for September 2009 and full-year 2009 and 2010:
|September 2009||2009||2010||2009 (official*)||2010 (official *)|
|GDP (real terms, as % of previous year)||92,9||101,9||91,5||101,6|
|Industrial production (real terms, as % of previous year)||88,0||89,6||103,0||88,6||101,9|
|Urals crude. Average for year ($/barrel)||57||63||57||58|
|Fixed capital investment (real terms, as % of previous year)||80,8||82,5||103,2||80,0||101,0|
|Retail turnover (real terms, as % of previous year)||90,9||95,6||102,5||94,0||101,5|
|Unemployment, % as at end of period||9,1||8,5|
|Inflation, % for period||0,2||10,9||9,4||11-12||9-10|
|Central Bank refinancing rate at end period, %||9,75||8,75|
|Producer prices, % for period||1,0||13,8||9,6|
|Ruble/euro rate, at end of period||-||45,1||42,9||-|
|Ruble/dollar rate, at end of period||-||31,4||32,0|
|Gold and forex reserves, at end of period, $ bln||-||397||434|
|Net private sector capital inflow/outflow, $ bln, for period||-||-34||4|
|Export, $ bln||28,9||294||325||285||307|
|Import, $ bln||17,0||188||219||190||200|
*) official Russian Economic Development Ministry forecast for 2009, approved by government in September
Analysts from ING Bank, Merrill Lynch, UralSib, Troika Dialog, BDO Unicon, KIT Finance, the Institute for Transition Period Economics and the Economic Expert Group took part in the consensus forecast.