2 Oct 2009 18:15

Russian oil product output could fall 0.8% in 2009, grow in 2012

MOSCOW. Oct 2 (Interfax) - Russian petroleum product output could fall 0.8% in 2009 to 235 million tonnes, hold at 236 million tonnes in 2010-2011 and rise to 240 million tonnes in 2012, the Economic Development Ministry said in an economic forecast for the period.

The growth in 2012 will be fuelled by the commissioning of new refineries in Nizhnekamsk and Tuapse, the ministry said.

Gasoline output could rise 2% this year to 36.3 million tonnes, diesel could fall 1.5% to 67.9 million tonnes and heating oil could be level with last year at 63.9 million tonnes.

Russia could be producing 37.7 million tonnes of gasoline, 72 million tonnes of diesel and 62.1 million tonnes of heating oil in 2012.

Growth in output for light products will be driven by an increase in product yield to 73.2% in 2012, from 72.1% in 2008.

The Econ Ministry expects world oil and petroleum product prices to fall at the end of this year, and the growth in gasoline prices in Russia to come to an end at the same time.

The ministry forecasts Russia will export 122.3 million tonnes of petroleum products in 2009, or 3.5% more than in 2008. Exports will fall to 121.3 million-120.6 million tonnes in 2010-2011 before rising to 123 million tonnes in 2012.

Exports could fall in the period to 2011 because refining is not likely to increase, demand on the domestic market will go up only slightly and demand in the Eurozone for Russian petroleum products will weaken.

The existing structure of exports will be preserved by 2012, with 73% going to Europe and 22% to Asia.

The slowdown in investment will force oil companies to delay refinery upgrades and commissioning new capacity.

The oil refining industry is being held back by low demand for quality fuels due to the fact that may of the cars on Russia's roads are local brands; by the low quality of the fuel that Russia's refineries produce in relation to existing euro-standards; low product yield; the distance between refineries and Russia's borders and seaports; and weak diversification in exports in terms of product type and regions, the ministry said.