16 Nov 2009 17:06

Troika Dialog lowers forecast on Surgutneftegas

MOSCOW. Nov 16 (Interfax) - Analysts at Troika Dialog investment company have lowered their forecast of the dividend yield for OJSC Surgutneftegas' preferred shares, correcting it with the inclusion of the company's RAS financial results for January-September 2009, the investment company said in an analytical note.

"We are for the second time revised the estimate for dividends on Surgutneftegas' preferred shares (from 1.24 rubles to 1.04 rubles and now to 0.95 rubles per share) since cash losses from the ruble's growth are eating away at the company's net profit, from which total dividend payments are tabulated," the report said.

According to Troika Dialog analysts, dividends on Surgutneftegas' preferred shares went up to 0.83 rubles per share in January-September. If the ruble keeps its current rate (28.83 rubles/$1) by year's end, RAS net profit for the first quarter of 2009 will come to around $450 million.

The note said that experts had produced this figure by subtracting $750 million in non-monetary losses from the company's forecast operation profit ($1.0 billion-$1.1 billion) resulting form the ruble's rising rate. Therefore, net profit for the whole of 2009 will likely come to 103.5 billion rubles (a total of $3.1 billion), which would guarantee a dividend payment on preferred shares totaling 0.95 ruble per share. Dividend yield in this scenario comes to 6.8%.