SUMMARY: Russian metals sector to see more investment in 2010
MOSCOW. Dec 9 (Interfax) - The Russian metallurgical industry will see higher investment in 2010 than this year, the Industry and Trade Ministry said in its revised strategy for the sector to 2020.
Capex in the iron and steel industry could rise 19% to 95 billion rubles, and it could grow 11% to 50 billion rubles in nonferrous metallurgy.
Overall investment in metallurgy could grow 16% to 145 billion rubles next year, according to the innovatory scenario.
This year, overall investment will plummet 37% to 125 billion rubles, including drops of 43% to 80 billion rubles in ferrous metallurgy and 22.5% to 45 billion rubles in nonferrous.
The latest version of the strategy has been adjusted for the effects of the crisis, however investment forecasts had to be adjusted back in 2008, when the sector received 198 billion rubles of an anticipated 230 billion rubles investment.
Investment in the metals sector is unlikely to recover to 2006 levels before 2011, when it could total 115 billion rubles in ferrous and 65 billion rubles in nonferrous metallurgy.
Companies will need to limit borrowing in the period 2009-2012 due to the crisis; loans could finance 20% of the investment in 2009-2011, down from 35% in 2005-2006, but rise to 22% in 2012-2015 and 23% in 2016-2020.
The ministry thinks demand for ferrous metals will contract in 2009-2010."Demand from the main metals-consuming industries is not expected to start recovering and their emergence from crisis cannot be forecast earlier than 2010. The domestic market will not recover to its pre-crisis level of 2007 until 2012-2014," it said.
The ministry forecasts nickel production in Russia to total 225,000-240,000 tonnes in 2010, according to the strategy to 2020.
Production next year would total 225,000 tonnes under the strategy's "inertia" scenario, 230,000 tonnes under the "energy-raw materials" scenario and 240,000 tonnes under the "innovation" scenario.
It forecasts aluminum production to rise to 3.740 million-4.110 million tonnes in 2010.
Nickel production in 2011 under the energy-raw materials scenario will total 240,000 tonnes, inertia - 245,000 tonnes and innovation - 250,000 tonnes.
Nickel production will be in the range 280,000-290,000 tonnes in 2015 and 291,000-305,000 tonnes in 2020.
The ministry expects nickel production in 2009 to total 215,000-230,000 tonnes. It was reported earlier that Norilsk Nickel has forecast that nickel production at its Russian facilities will total 232,000 tonnes this year.
Russia's nickel exports under the strategy will increase. The exports totaled 245,000 tonnes in 2008 and will amount to 190,000-205,000 tonnes this year. They are forecast to rise to 215,000-225,000 in 2010, to 256,500-260,000 tonnes in 2015 and to 259,000-263,000 tonnes in 2020.
Domestic nickel consumption, totaling 17,500 tonnes in 2008 and an expected 25,500 tonnes in 2009, will rise to 20,500-25,500 tonnes in 2010, 24,000-30,000 tonnes in 2015 and 32,500-42,000 tonnes in 2020.
Domestic demand for nickel will accelerate due to increasing demand for stainless steel and heat-resistant alloys, the strategy says.
The ministry forecasts Russia will produce between 650,000 tonnes and 890,000 tonnes of refined copper in 2010; 190,000-215,000 tonnes of zinc; 75,00-90,000 tonnes of lead; 2,700-3,200 tonnes of tin; 24,500-28,500 tonnes of titanium roll; and 57,000-65,000 tonnes of magnesium.
Rising domestic demand for value-added copper products ought to reduce the share of imported copper roll from 13.8% in 2007 to 2% in 2010. Domestic copper supply should be 650,200 tonnes in 2011, 750,000 tonnes in 2015 and 900,000 tonnes in 2020.
Domestic supplies of zinc could be 205,000 tonnes in 2011, 300,000 tonnes in 2015 and 400,000 tonnes in 2020.
Domestic lead supplies should be 86,000 tonnes in 2011, 98.500 tonnes in 2015 and 114,000 tonnes in 2020.
Most of Russia's tin will be consumed domestically: up to 3,300 tonnes in 2011, 3,500 tonnes in 2015 and 4,200 tonnes in 2020.
Domestic titanium consumption could rise to 9,200 tonnes in 2011, 15,000 tonnes in 2015 and 20,000 tonnes in 2020.
Most of Russia's magnesium will be consumed domestically: 54,300 tonnes in 2011, 69,000 tonnes in 2015 and 80,000 tonnes in 2020.
The ministry forecasts iron and steel production to total 48 million-50 million tonnes in 2010.
It forecasts export of finished steel in 2010 at 25.5 million tonnes. Imports will total 1.5 million tonnes.
Under the inertia scenario, production of finished iron and steel will total 48 million tonnes in 2010, 53.5 million tonnes in 2011, 65 million tonnes in 2015 and 72 million tonnes in 2020.
Production under the energy-raw materials scenario will total 49 million tonnes in 2010, 55 million tonnes in 2011, 72 million tonnes in 2015 and 80 million tonnes in 2020, while under the innovation scenario, production is slated to equal 50 million tonnes in 2010, 54 million tonnes in 2011, 67.5 million tonnes in 2015 and 75 million tonnes in 2020.
Production of iron and steel flat products will be in the range 20 million-22 million tonnes in 2010 and 22 million-24 million tonnes in 2011.
Production of iron and steel long products will total 27.5 million-28 million tonnes in 2010 and 29.5 million-31.5 million tonnes in 2011.
The ministry forecasts production of steel pipe in 2010 at 6.3 million-6.5 million tonnes.
In 2010, exports of steal pipe are forecast at 1.5 million tonnes while imports are put at 700,000 tonnes. Consumption of the product on the domestic market will likely come to 5.5 million-5.7 million tonnes.
According to the slow scenario, pipe output in 2010 will come to 6.3 million tonnes, in 2011 - 7.4 million tonnes, 2015 - 10.7 million tonnes and in 2020 - 12.5 million tonnes.
The fast scenario sees production at 6.5 million tonnes in 2010, 2011 - 8.4 million tonnes, 2015 - 12.1 million tonnes and 2020 - 14.1 million tonnes.
The innovative variant sees production in 2010 at 6.4 million tonnes, in 2011 - 7.9 million tonnes, in 2015 - 115 million tonnes and in 2020 - 13.4 million tonnes.