16 Dec 2009 14:19

Econ Ministry submits revised 2010-2012 forecast, inflation lowered

MOSCOW. Dec 16 (Interfax) - The Russian Economic Development Ministry has submitted a revised economic forecast for the period 2010-2012 which lowers inflation substantially.

The 2010 inflation forecast is lowered to 6.5%-7.5% from 9%-10%, Andrei Klepach, a deputy economic development minister, told reporters.

The most likely oil price is now $65 a barrel, and GDP growth is 3.1% in 2010, Klepach said.

The ruble could average at 28.3 rubles/$1 instead of the previously forecast 33.9 rubles/$1 next year, he said.

Klepach said the Econ Ministry had come up with three scenarios, the most likely of which is the second, "moderately conservative" one, which assumes oil will average at $61 a barrel in 2009, $65 in 2010, $70 in 2011 and $71 in 2012.

The ministry also has a '1a' scenario which puts oil at the budgeted $58 a barrel in 2010, $59 in 2011 and $60 in 2012.

The third scenario, or '2b', projects that oil prices will grow from their present levels to average at $69 in 2010, $74 in 2011 and $81 in 2012.

"The '2b' scenario is the most likely," Klepach said. It is based on the same principles as the 2010 budget, but with higher oil prices, he said.

All three scenarios see inflation of 6.5%-7.5% in 2010 (September's official forecast was 9%-10%), 6%-7% in 2011 (7%-8%) and 5%-6.5% in 2012 (5%-7%).

The '2b' GDP forecast is for growth of 3.1% in 2010, 3.4% in 2011 and 4.2% in 2012.

The '1a' scenario, with oil prices as per the 2010 budget, is one of fiscal restraint and sees GDP growing 1.3% in 2010 (previous forecast 1.6%), 1% in 2011 (3.0%) and 2.9% in 2012 (4.3%).

The '2b' scenario projects GDP growth of 3.5% in 2010, 3.6% in 2011 and 4.7% in 2012.