21 Jan 2010 09:23

World Bank expects Russian GDP to climb 3% in 2011, world GDP

MOSCOW. Jan 21 (Interfax) - The World Bank expects Russia's GDP in 2011 to increased by 3%, the World Bank said in a forecast on the world economy for 2010, which was published on Wednesday. In turn, the world economy is forecast to increase quicker at 3.2%.

The World Bank raised its GDP growth forecast for the world economy for 2010 from 2.6% to 2.7%, which it earlier included in a report published in November.

The forecast for the Russian economy in 2010 remains unchanged: it will likely increase 3.2%.

GDP of countries such as Brasil, India and China, the World Bank said, will increase faster than that of the world economy. For example, Brazilian GDP growth is forecast at 3.6% for 2010, in 2011 - 3.9% while China's GDP is expected to increase by 9% annually. India's GDP is forecast to expand by 7.5% and 8%, respectively.

The forecasts for emerging markets indicate generally strong economic growth coming to 5.2% in 2010 and 5.8% in comparison with 1.2% in 2009, the report said. According to the World Bank, GDP in developed countries could increase at a lower pace at 1.8% in 2010 and 2.3% in 2011, respectively.

In addition, the bank believes that budget deficits in exports of hydrocarbon resources, such as Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, will drop in 2010 owing to gradual gains in oil prices and an increase in total production.

The World Bank expects the average price for oil in 2010 will come to $76 per barrel (according to a November forecast of 75.3%), increasing slightly to $76.6 in 2011. The World Bank forecast this price for Brent, Dubai and WTI oil blends.

The trend for increased demand for crude oil in countries that are not members of the Organization for Economic Partnership and Development (OECD), which has been felt since the second quarter of 2009, will continue through 2010, the World Bank said. In OECD member states demand for oil this year will be low.

The bank also expects world trade to increase in 2010 by 4.3% and in 2011 by 6.3%. Therefore, the report stresses, even by the end of the second year of economic recovery, total world trade will be 5% below its 2008 level.

The World Bank also expects foreign direct investment (FDI) in emerging markets to drop to 2.8%-3% of GDP over the midterm in comparison with 3.9% of GDP in 2007.

The report said that the current revival of the world economy would slow throughout 2010 as the influence of budget stimulus measures weakened. In addition, instability continues on financial markets while demand from the private sector remains low in light of high unemployment levels.

The World Bank believes that, despite the possible finale to the most difficult financial crisis, the revival of the world economic will not be consistent. According to the forecast, the aftereffects of the crisis will bring about changes in models for financing and economic growth over the next decade.