19 Apr 2010 13:53

Energy Ministry drafts project to develop electricity system to 2016

MOSCOW. April 19 (Interfax) - The Russian Energy Ministry has drawn up a draft scheme for development of the Unified Electricity System (UES) in the 2010-2016 period, which will see installed capacity increase 16.9% in the six years to 247,740 megawatts.

The program for developing the UES was prepared by System Operator and Federal Grid Company , as stipulated in a government resolution from October 2009.

The program forecasts demand for electricity to rise 2.9% a year on average in 2010-2016, to 1.152 trillion kWh by 2016 from 0.943 trillion kWh in 2009.

Demand will recover to pre-crisis levels by 2011 in the Northwestern, Central, Southern and Siberian districts, by 2012 in the Urals and by 2013 in the Central Volga district, the Energy Ministry forecasts.

Excluding exports and plant withdrawn from service, demand for generating capacity will rise to 235.7 million kW in 2016, up from 207.2 million kW in 2010.

Peak loads on the electricity system are forecast to rise to 177,300 MW in 2016 from 151,000 MW in 2010 including the Eastern district or to 171,000 MW from 146,400 MW excluding the Eastern district.

Capacity totaling 42,850 MW will be added in 2010-2016, including 9,870 MW of nuclear power, 28,480 MW of thermal station power, 3,520 MW of hydropower and 980 MW of hydro-accumulation power.

The forecast for the additions includes adjustments to the investment obligations of the generating companies under agreements to provide capacity.

The most capacity will be added in the Central (10,290 MW) and Urals (12,500 MW) districts.

The share of nuclear power in total generating capacity will rise to 13.2% from 11.1% previously, the share of hydropower will decline to 19.9% from 21% currently and the share of thermal plants will decline to 66.9% from 67.9%.

The program foresees de-commissioning of 8,400 MW of capacity, including 600 megawatts of nuclear and 7,800 MW of thermal. The total includes 6,600 MW proposed by the generating companies and 1,800 MW in equipment that has been mothballed for more than one year.

The Energy Ministry has proposed that gencos consider the de-commissioning of power units that entered service before 1960, and those with poor efficiency ratings. Capacity meeting those criteria totals about 7,800 MW

The UES program also targets addition of 38,800 kilometers of transmission lines in the 220-750 kV range, as well as about 133,400 MVA of transformer capacity.

The UES will export 6,200 MW (22.1 billion kWh) in 2010, rising to 6,800 MW (25.4 billion kWh) in 2016. Large-scale exports of electricity from the Eastern district to China are slated to begin in 2011, reaching 450 MW (2.7 billion kWh) in 2016. The second phase will see deliveries rise to 3,000 MW (18 billion kWh), with activation of the Yerkovetskaya thermal power plant (1,200 MW), part of the Amur system, and the Urgalskaya thermal plant (2,400 MW) in the Khabarovsk system.

The supply and demand schedule indicates there will be no electricity imports in 2010-2016, except for flows from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine and Mongolia, estimated to total 1.02 billion kWh a year.

Reserve capacity amounts to 12%-23% of peak loads. In absolute terms, reserve capacity will total 24,800 MW in 2010 and 29,200 MW in 2016.

Total capacity in the UES will exceed the statutory requirement by 3.8%-8.7%, or 6,000 MW in 2010 and 8,900 MW in 2016.

The draft, which is undergoing the approval procedure, is currently located at the Justice Ministry, a source close to the ministry said.