Russian govt approves 2011-2013 socioeconomic development forecast
MOSCOW. Sept 24 (Interfax) - The Russian government has approved the socioeconomic development forecast for 2011 and the 2012-2013 planning period, Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina said at a briefing following a Cabinet meeting.
The basic scenario, corresponding to the scenario contained in the draft budget for 2011-2013, uses fairly conservative assumptions: "steady recovery of the global economy and moderate growth in the price of Urals crude to $78-$79 a barrel in 2012-2013."
The basic scenario is the "investment" version of economic development. It stipulates major investment by companies in the fuel and energy sector in 2011. The budget boosts spending for high-tech, housing construction, and health. Bank lending is also slated to recover and business competitiveness is also forecast to rise. Increases in imports will outpace growth in domestic demand, although the gap will narrow. The pace of real wage growth will be comparable to labor productivity gains, the ministry said.
The basic scenario calls for moderate growth in oil prices, Nabiullina said. "We forecast that the non-raw materials sectors, including industry, will post rapid growth," she said. Their share in Russian economic output is small now but is expected to increase in future, she said.
The forecasts also account for the situation in which internal risks arise as well as the possibility that the non-raw materials sectors do not meet expectations. "If for some reason certain domestic risks emerge and the non-raw materials sector are not able to carry out the modernization and investment programs and don't grow at the high pace we expect - we also have forecasts for that," Nabiullina said.
That situation would reduce GDP growth by 1-1.5 percentage points, she said. "In our view, given those oil prices, if our domestic economy doesn't adapt to the new circumstances, if the measures we enact don't have the desired effect, GDP growth could be 1-1.5 percentage points lower," she said.
Key indicators for the basic scenario forecast for 2011-2013 (Econ Ministry basic scenario forecast in June):
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
| Price of Urals oil, $/bbl | 75 (75) | 75 (75) | 78 (78) | 79(79) |
| GDP, % of previous year | 104.0 (104.0) | 104.2 (103.4) | 103.9 (103.5) | 104.5(104.2) |
| Inflation, % | 7-8 (6-7) | 6-7 (5.5-6.5) | 5.0-6.0 (5.0-6.0) | 4.5-5.5 (4.5-5.5) |
| Industry, % | 107.6 (102.7) | 103.9 (103.2) | 103.8 (103.1) | 104.9 (104.2) |
| Investment in fixed assets, % | 102.5 (102.9) | 110.0 (108.8) | 103.5 (106.3) | 107.4 (108.1) |
| Real wages and salaries, % | 104.9 (103.6) | 103.5 (102.5) | 104.0 (102.4) | 104.7 (103.1) |
| Retail trade turnover, % | 105.2 (104.4) | 105.0 (104.5) | 105.6 (104.8) | 106.0 (106.3) |
| Exports, $ bln | 378 (373) | 389 (384) | 412 (403) | 432 (417) |
| Imports, $ bln | 241 (238) | 277 (274) | 303 (305) | 334 (339) |