Russian industry could grow 5.6% in Dec, prices 0.9% - analysts
MOSCOW. Dec 28 (Interfax) - Russian industry will grow 5.6% in December and inflation could be 0.9%, analysts from investment companies, banks and think tanks said in their month-end consensus forecast for Interfax.
Positive tendencies in the economic revival were sustained in December, but November's data showed that there was no sustained acceleration in growth and that if anything, seasonally adjusted investment and industrial growth has a tendency to speed up one month and slow down the next.
But inflation is higher than forecast: it accelerated from 0.5% in October to 0.8% in November and could be higher than that in December.
Consensus forecast of macroeconomic indicators for December 2010 and full-year 2010 and 2011:
| Dec 2010 | 2010 | 2011 | 2010 (official *) | 2011 (official *) | |
| GDP (real terms, as % of previous year) | 103,7 | 103,8 | 103,8 | 104,2 | |
| Industrial production (real terms, as % of previous year) | 105,6 | 108,1 | 104,5 | 108,3 | 104,1 |
| Urals crude. Average for year ($/barrel | 77,4 | 82 | 77,5 | 81 | |
| Fixed capital investment (real terms, as % of previous year) | 107,0 | 105,6 | 108,0 | 105,9 | 109,0 |
| Retail turnover (real terms, as % of previous year) | 104,8 | 104,5 | 104,6 | 104,5 | 104,8 |
| Real incomes,% | 104,4 | 104,1 | 103,8 | 103,3 | |
| Unemployment, % as at end of period | 6,8 | 6,6 | |||
| Inflation, % for period | 0,9 | 8,6 | 8,3 | 8,3-8,5 | 6,0-7,0 |
| Central Bank refinancing rate at end period, % | 7,75 | 8,5 | |||
| Producer prices, % for period | 2,4 | 18,3 | 11,7 | ||
| Ruble/euro rate, at end of period | - | 40,5 | 39,5 | - | |
| Ruble/dollar rate, at end of period | - | 30,6 | 29,5 | 30,4 **) | 31,3 **) |
| Gold and forex reserves, at end of period, $ bln | - | 493 | 550 | ||
| Net private sector capital inflow/outflow, $ bln, for period | - | -21 | 10 | ||
| Export, $ bln | 37,1 | 393 | 414 | 394,7 | 414,3 |
| Import, $ bln | 26,2 | 248 | 287 | 248,6 | 286,2 |
*) adjusted Russian Economic Development Ministry forecast for 2010-2013, approved by government in September ('2b' forecast)
**) average annual ruble/dollar rate
Analysts from BDO, Alfa-Bank , Institute of Transition Period Economics, Otkritie Financial Corporation, Sberbank , Gazprombank, Trust, Uralsib, Unicredit and Economics Expert Group took part in the consensus forecast.