Azerbaijan lowers 2011 GDP growth forecast to 1.3%
BAKU. Aug 5 (Interfax) - Azerbaijan's gross domestic product is expected to grow 1.3% this year, a drop from the 3.8% forecast earlier due to a larger than predicted contraction in the oil sector.
"At the present time, government structures are firming up the macroeconomic forecast for 2011 and 2012. In particular, according to the latest assessments, Azerbaijan's GDP will grow 1.3% in 2011, where the initial forecast was 3.8%," a source in the government told Interfax.
Nominal GDP volume will be 45 billion manat this year.
An 8% contraction in oil-sector output this year is now expected, up from the initial prediction of 0.3%, due to a drop in oil extraction. This will cause GDP to grow less than originally foreseen.
Growth in the non-oil sector this year is expected at 10.2% versus the earlier 8.3%.
The Azerbaijani government now expects average annual inflation of 9.8% instead of 7%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts GDP growth of 2.8% this year and 2.5% next year. The Asian Development Bank thinks GDP will grow 5.8% both years. The World Bank forecasts growth this year of 4.2% and next year of 4.1%. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) anticipates 2011 and 2012 GDP growth of 3% each year.
Azerbaijan's GDP expanded 5% in 2010.
The official exchange rate for August 5: 0.7864 manat/$1.