31 Oct 2012 18:46
Russian industry up 2.5% in Sept, consumer prices 0.7% - analysts
MOSCOW. Oct 31. (Interfax) - Russian industrial output rose 2.5% in September, analysts from investment companies, banks and think tanks said in their monthly consensus forecast for Interfax.
Inflation, which accelerated from 0.1% in August to 0.6% in September, could be 0.7%.
Consensus forecast of macroeconomic indicators for October, full-year 2012 and 2013:
| Oct 2012 | 2012 | 2013 | 2012 (official *) | 2013 (official*) | |
| GDP (real terms, as % of previous year) | 103,6 | 103,3 | 103,5 | 103,7 | |
| Industrial production (real terms, as % of previous year) | 102,5 | 103,2 | 103,2 | 103,6 | 103,5 |
| Urals crude. Average for year ($/barrel | 109 | 105 | 109 | 97 | |
| Fixed capital investment (real terms, as % of previous year) | 98,9 | 106,3 | 105,4 | 105,5 | 107,2 |
| Retail turnover (real terms, as % of previous year) | 104,2 | 105,7 | 104,8 | 106,1 | 105,4 |
| Real incomes,% | 103,3 | 103,4 | 103,0 | 103,7 | |
| Unemployment, % as at end of period | 5,9 | 5,9 | |||
| Inflation, % for period | 0,7 | 7,0 | 6,3 | 7 | 5-6 |
| Central Bank refinancing rate at end period, % | 8,25 | 7,75 | |||
| Producer prices, % for period | 0,7 | 10,5 | 7,9 | ||
| Ruble/euro rate, at end of period | - | 40,5 | 41,3 | ||
| Ruble/dollar rate, at end of period | - | 32,1 | 32,7 | 31,3 **) | 32,4 **) |
| Gold and forex reserves, at end of period, $ bln | - | 532 | 550 | ||
| Net private sector capital inflow/outflow, $ bln, for period | - | -68 | -34 | - 50-65 | 0 |
| Export, $ bln | 44,4 | 527 | 515 | 534 | 500 |
| Import, $ bln | 30,3 | 342 | 367 | 343 | 375 |
*) Economic Development Ministry forecast, approved by government in September
**) Average USD/ruble rate for year
Analysts from the Economic Policy Institute, Otkritie Financial Corporation, Raiffeisenbank, Uralsib, ING, VTB Capital, Troika Dialog, Alfa-Bank and Rosbank took part in the survey.