Annual rate of decline for Russian GDP in Q2 was 0.2%-0.4% - Central Bank
MOSCOW. Aug 1 (Interfax) - The annual rate of decline of the Russian economy in Q2 2016 was 0.2%-0.4%, the Central Bank is maintaining its forecast for the decline of GDP in 2016 at 0.3%-0.7%.
The amount of industrial production without the seasonal factor rose 0.3% in June in comparison with the previous month. The annual growth rate for industrial production rose to 1.7% from 0.7% in May. The main contribution to accelerating production performance was made by the manufacturing sector, the growth of production in which accelerated in June to 1.6% in annual terms from 0.3% in May, the Central Bank said in the July issue of its analytical commentary "Economy: Facts, Estimates, Commentary".
In consumer production, there was confident growth in the food and chemical industries, recovery growth of output in the production of clothing, leather goods, cars, and also stabilization in other production sectors. Growth in the production of raw materials and interim goods in June continued for practically all sales positions.
"As regards investment products, it is possible to speak about the stabilization in the output of construction materials, machine-building and instrument-making products and about recovery growth in the production of metal goods. However, the sharp fall in the production of vessels and flying apparatuses in June weakened the performance of investment good production," the commentary said.
At the same time, the annual growth rate for the production of investment goods returned to negative territory. The volume of construction work also continued to fall in comparison to the same period of last year.
According to Central Bank estimates, the reduction of investments in fixed capital in comparison to the same period of 2015 in June was 3.4% after a fall of 3.1% in May 2016. The reduction of investments in fixed capital in Q2 as a whole is estimated within the range of 3.2%-3.4%.
In Q3 and Q4 the Central Bank is expecting a slowdown the decline of this figure both in comparison to the same period last year, and in comparison with the preceding period adjusted for seasonality.
"With account of the positive performance of indicators for supply and the weakness of internal demand, the revival of economic activity, probably, will be provided in large part by the dynamics of reserves and external demand. With that, a necessary condition for reaching a sustainable, positive rate of economic growth is the recovery of consumer and investor demand," the Central Bank said.