United Russia bolsters its positions at finish, leading in election race - VTsIOM opinion poll
MOSCOW. Sept 12 (Interfax) - Ahead of the elections to the State Duma the United Russia Party is a favorite for the voters: its rating, which had been declining over the past three months, has reached 41.1% over the past week (against 39.3% at the public opinion polls on September 3-4), VTsIOM said.
"As the voting day is getting closer, the inter-party competition is becoming tenser; first and foremost, the ruling party is traditionally under the blow. Its rating has dropped from 45% to 41% over the past three months, but the result of the closest rival is four times lower. Over the past few days the downturn trend has stopped, and the rating again rose, probably, thanks to the fact that the party is effectively emphasizing its ties with the president," VTsIOM director general Valery Fyodorov said.
According to the latest data, the Russian Liberal Democratic Party's (LDPR) rating is 12.6%, the rating of this party has been between 10.3% and 11.6% in June-August (according to the average monthly indicators). The Russian Communist Party's (CPRF) support level has fallen to 7.4% (the average monthly figures were higher in June-August).
"Another important trend of the past few weeks is the strengthening of the LDPR, which is claiming for the second place even more confidently. The CPRF campaign does not result in the party rating's growth, but the CPRF basic electorate is quite mobilized," Fyodorov said.
The A Just Russia rating is 6.3% (growth from 5.3% over the past week), but in general the rating is unstable, and over the past few months it has fluctuated between 6.3% and 7.2%. The A Just Russia rating "is volatile due to unstable sentiments of the party's electorate: this is one of the main parties of the 'second choice', but the confidence of its supporters that their choice is final is not large," the VTsIOM director general said.
Meanwhile, none of non-parliamentary parties clears 5% election threshold for now, according to the findings of the sociologists. The Russian Party of Pensioners "For Social Justice" (2.4% against 1.6% on September 3-4), the Yabloko Party (1.1% now and earlier) and Rodina (1.1% now against 0.8% earlier) claim to surpass 3% threshold.
Less than 1% of the vote have: the Party of Growth (0.8% now and earlier), PARNAS (0.8% and 0.4% earlier), the Communists of Russia (0.6% and 0.4% earlier) and the Greens (0.6% and 0.5% earlier).
According to the public opinion poll findings, United Russia begins to win back the positions in the rating thanks to the fostered association with head of state Vladimir Putin, political expert, member of the Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies expert council, Alexei Zudin, said.
"The latest poll reaffirmed that the downward trend in the United Russia rating has stopped, having changed to the upward one. Most apparently, this happened, because the public opinion much more clearly identifies the ties between United Russia and the president," Zudin told Interfax on Monday.
The VTsIOM also reflects the rivalry for being a runner-up between the LDPR and the CPRF, meanwhile, the LDPR has the real opportunity to win this rivalry, he also said.
"This was confirmed once again that the main intrigue of the election campaign is the rivalry for the second place between the Liberal Democrats and the Communists. And the obtained data confirmed also once again that the chances of the Liberal Democrats to replace the Communists as the main party of the Duma opposition are getting higher," Zudin said.
The A Just Russia chances to be elected in the new State Duma are approximately 50 by 50 that the sociologists had indirectly substantiated.
"The A Just Russia figures have slightly improved, however, both opposite scenarios are equally possible in the final stage of the election campaign in relation to A Just Russia: A Just Russia will manage to be elected to the new Duma after all, or with comparable probability A Just Russia will not qualify for the new Duma," the political expert said.
The opinion poll findings demonstrate that "none of 'small Duma parties' has any possibilities to be elected to the new State Duma on the party list," consequently, the principal competition will unfold in single-member constituencies, he also said.
The Seventh State Duma will be elected on a single voting day, September 18, 2016, under the 2014 law which reinstated the mixed electoral system for the lower house of Russian parliament.
Under that law, half of 450 deputies will be elected on party tickets and the other half in single-member constituencies. Besides, victorious parties will need to surpass 5% threshold, as compared to 7% in previous elections.
The VTsIOM initiative nationwide public opinion polls have been held among 3,200 people on September 10-11 (combined data of flat-to-flat and CATI opinion polls). The sampling population consists of Russian citizens aged 18 and older according to sex, age, education and the type of populated locality. The maximal sampling error (with due account of design effect) with the probability of 95% does not exceed 2.5%.
