Ulyukayev considers forecast for oil at $48/barrel completely realistic
MOSCOW. Oct 26 (Interfax) - The forecast for oil, set in the so-called baseline plus scenario at $48 per barrel in 2017, $52 in 2018 and $55 in 2019 is realistic and even lower than analysts expected, Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said.
"In general, the situation is changing for the better. Amid this, the forecast that we developed takes into account these trends, despite very conservative estimates being set down in it - conservative estimates of global demand, conservative expectations for the global situation, the same parameters for the sanctions regime, and very conservative estimates for the market situation. The baseline option is completely utilitarian, and it is difficult for calculating budget parameters, proceeding from oil prices at $40 per barrel and corresponds to the insignificant rates of economic growth," he said, speaking about the baseline forecast scenario at the Federation Council during a presentation on the forecast for 2017-2019.
"I would like to stop at the so-called "baseline plus" scenario, which seems completely realistic to us and is connected with the continuation of the recovery, which began this year. We are proceeding based on the fact that this will be very slow, but the recovery of global markets: oil at $48 per barrel in 2017, $52 in 2018 and $55 in 2019. This is lower than was expected by analysts, here there is also such healthy conservatism, but this, in any case, corresponds with the situation today," he said, describing the baseline plus scenario.
"Today the price for our Urals oil is just now at $48 per barrel and around $40.5 at the start of the year. If that kind of level like today is maintained, then in 2016 the average price will be $42. Therefore an expectation of $48 for next year is a completely realistic expectation," the minister said.
He said that in the [baseline plus] scenario GDP in 2017 is expected to grow 1.1%, 1.8% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019.
According to the baseline scenario, economic growth in 2017 will be 0.6%.