7 Sep 2018 09:30

Ruble rate in macro forecast "fairly provisional" - Siluanov

MOSCOW. Sept 7 (Interfax) - The forecast exchange rate of the ruble in the Economic Development Ministry's macroeconomic forecast is "fairly provisional," used as a target indicator for calculating the parameters of the budget and it can be adjusted, First Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said.

"This forecast for the ruble's exchange rate, when we consider macroeconomic indicators, is fairly provisional. When the Economic Development Ministry prepares the forecast indicators, of course, we are guided by internal assumptions, forecasts, which life can correct," Siluanov told reporters.

"And we always keep in mind that the ruble exchange rate forecast that is factored into the forecast is a kind of target indicator that serves for calculating the budget, recalculating foreign currency obligations, receiving foreign currency revenues into the budget, influence on the economy in general," Siluanov said.

The U.S. dollar was above 69 rubles on Thursday. However, the new macroeconomic forecast that the government's budget commission reviewed on Wednesday projects an exchange rate of 63.90 rubles/dollar in December 2018. This is the projection given in the baseline version of Economic Development Ministry's revised macroeconomic forecast for the period to 2024, a copy of which has been reviewed by Interfax.

The document projects an average ruble exchange rate against the dollar of 65.40 rubles in September, 64.50 rubles in October and 63.90 rubles in November-December. The ministry expects the average rate to be 64.40 rubles/$1 in September-December.

"The ruble continued to weaken in August 2018, which was related to the new wave of capital outflow from emerging markets amid the worsening financial and economic situation in Turkey, as well as the U.S. announcement of the possible imposition of an additional sanctions package against Russia. In these conditions, the Economic Development Ministry expects the ruble's exchange rate to remain at higher levels until the end of 2018 (64.40 rubles in September-December, which corresponds to an average annual value of 61.70 rubles per dollar)," the ministry's forecast states.

The ministry forecasts that the ruble's exchange rate against the dollar will be 63.80 rubles at the end of 2019, 64.10 rubles at the end of 2020 and 63.90 rubles at the end of 2021.