13 Sep 2018 14:33

IEA expects Russian oil production to grow more than Energy Ministry forecasts in 2019

MOSCOW. Sept 13 (Interfax) - The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects Russia will raise oil production on average by 130,000 barrels per day in 2018, the IEA said in its monthly markets report.

Output will rise another 220,000 bpd in 2019 as new projects are launched, the IEA said. In other words, the IEA expects Russia will double output next year, while Russia itself expects the same growth next year as in 2018.

Using a conversion factor of 7.33 barrels/tonne, the IEA expects Russia will raise output by 6.5 million tonnes in 2018 and 11 million tonnes in 2019.

Russia updated its own forecasts for oil production in 2018 and 2019 following the OPEC+ decision on a possible increase in overall output.

According to the Russian Energy Ministry's latest forecast, Russia will; raise output 4 million tonnes a year to 51 million tonnes in 2018, from 547 million tonnes in 2017; and by 4 million tonnes again in 2019 to 555 million tonnes.

"Russian crude and condensate production held steady in August at just over 11.2 million barrels per day, up 300,000 barrels per day on a year ago. As such, output was on par with that of October 2016, meaning that Russian producers have unwound all but 20,000 barrels per day of the cuts in place under the Vienna Agreement. A 57,000 bpd drop in output from production sharing agreement operators in August was slightly lower than expected and offset by higher output from elsewhere. Output is expected to drop marginally in September as maintenance at the Sakhalin fields in the East intensifies," the IEA said.