VIEWPOINT: We are geared to range of 62.50-63.50 rubles/$1 - Promsvyazbank
MOSCOW. July 1 (Interfax) - "At present, according to our model, the ruble's exchange rate is almost balanced, going by current oil prices and key macroeconomic data," said Promsvyazbank analyst Mikhail Poddubsky. "The Russian currency was among the currency market leaders for the first half of the year, strengthening by around 10.5%, due to a number of factors: the ruble's generally low value at the end of last year, improved sentiment on the global markets, a seasonally strong current account, and relaxation or even abandonment of limits at OFZ. Towards the end of a half, the seasonality of the current account began to play against the ruble, with fiscal rule-based FX purchases covering current account inflows, and the Finance Ministry has been setting comparatively low limits at the latest OFZ auctions, so according to fundamental models the ruble is not looking particularly undervalued. On the horizon of the coming week we are geared to a range of 62.50-63.50 rubles/$1. The positivity from the G20 summit will help the ruble return below $63, but in our view the potential for growth from current levels already looks limited," the analyst said.
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