CONSENSUS: Russian industry up 2.3%, consumer prices up 0.2% in June - analysts
Russian industry may have grown 2.3% year-on-year in June, analysts from investment companies, banks, and think-tanks said in their monthly consensus forecast for Interfax.
The volatility of data on industry in 5M continues to surprise analysts: there was growth of 1.1% in January, 4.1% in February, 1.2% in March, 4.6% in April, and 0.9% in March. The number of working days in each month compared to last year partly explains the figures.
Inflation is expected to be 0.2% in June, which would represent a slowing to 4.7% from 5.1% at the end of May.
The analysts now expect GDP for the year to grow 1.1%, while a month ago they were predicting 1.2% growth.
Consensus forecast of macroeconomic indicators for June 2019/June 2020
| June 2019 | 2019 | 2020 | 2019 (official*) | 2020 (official*) | |
| GDP (real terms, as % of previous year) | 101.1 | 101.8 | 101.3 | 102.0 | |
| Industrial production (real terms, as % of previous year) | 102.3 | 101.8 | 102.2 | 102.3 | 102.6 |
| Urals crude, average for year ($/barrel) | 66 | 65 | 63.4 | 59.7 | |
| Fixed capital investment (real terms, as % of previous year) | 101.5 | 103.5 | 103.1 | 107.0 | |
| Retail turnover (real terms, as % of previous year) | 101.0 | 101.3 | 102.0 | 101.6 | 102.1 |
| Unemployment, % at end of period | 4.7 | 4.7 | |||
| Real incomes, % at end of period | 100.4 | 101.3 | 101.0 | 101.5 | |
| Inflation, % for period | 0.2 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| Central Bank key lending rate (one-week REPO) at end of period, % | 7.25 | 6.75 | |||
| Producer prices, % for period | 1.5 | 6.7 | 5.7 | ||
| Ruble/euro rate, at end of period | - | 75.8 | 78.5 | ||
| Ruble/dollar rate, at end of period | - | 65.9 | 67.8 | 65.1(**) | 64.9(**) |
| International reserves, at end of period, $ bln | - | 529 | 570 | ||
| Net private sector capital inflow/outflow, $ bln, for period | - | -47 | -31 | -38 | -24 |
| Export, $ bln | 36.9 | 425 | 435 | 438 | 439 |
| Import, $ bln | 21.9 | 252 | 265 | 258 | 274 |
*) Economic Development Ministry's baseline scenario, approved by the government in April.
**) Annual exchange rate.