CONSENSUS: Russian industry up 2.3%, consumer prices up 0.2% in June - analysts
Russian industry may have grown 2.3% year-on-year in June, analysts from investment companies, banks, and think-tanks said in their monthly consensus forecast for Interfax.
The volatility of data on industry in 5M continues to surprise analysts: there was growth of 1.1% in January, 4.1% in February, 1.2% in March, 4.6% in April, and 0.9% in March. The number of working days in each month compared to last year partly explains the figures.
Inflation is expected to be 0.2% in June, which would represent a slowing to 4.7% from 5.1% at the end of May.
The analysts now expect GDP for the year to grow 1.1%, while a month ago they were predicting 1.2% growth.
Consensus forecast of macroeconomic indicators for June 2019/June 2020
|June 2019||2019||2020||2019 (official*)||2020 (official*)|
|GDP (real terms, as % of previous year)||101.1||101.8||101.3||102.0|
|Industrial production (real terms, as % of previous year)||102.3||101.8||102.2||102.3||102.6|
|Urals crude, average for year ($/barrel)||66||65||63.4||59.7|
|Fixed capital investment (real terms, as % of previous year)||101.5||103.5||103.1||107.0|
|Retail turnover (real terms, as % of previous year)||101.0||101.3||102.0||101.6||102.1|
|Unemployment, % at end of period||4.7||4.7|
|Real incomes, % at end of period||100.4||101.3||101.0||101.5|
|Inflation, % for period||0.2||4.3||3.9||4.3||3.8|
|Central Bank key lending rate (one-week REPO) at end of period, %||7.25||6.75|
|Producer prices, % for period||1.5||6.7||5.7|
|Ruble/euro rate, at end of period||-||75.8||78.5|
|Ruble/dollar rate, at end of period||-||65.9||67.8||65.1(**)||64.9(**)|
|International reserves, at end of period, $ bln||-||529||570|
|Net private sector capital inflow/outflow, $ bln, for period||-||-47||-31||-38||-24|
|Export, $ bln||36.9||425||435||438||439|
|Import, $ bln||21.9||252||265||258||274|
*) Economic Development Ministry's baseline scenario, approved by the government in April.
**) Annual exchange rate.