12 Jul 2019 17:37

OPEC+ deal extension doesn't change basic forecast of market oversupply - IEA

MOSCOW. July 12 (Interfax) - The extension of the OPEC+ deal until March 2020 improves guidance but does not change the basic forecast of market oversupply, the International Enegy Agency wrote in its monthly report.

In June, there was 128% compliance with the deal among OPEC countries and 98% compliance among non-OPEC countries.

"The main message of this Report is that in 1H19 oil supply has exceeded demand by 0.9 mb/d. Our latest data show a global surplus in 2Q19 of 0.5 mb/d versus previous expectations of a 0.5 mb/d deficit," the report reads.

Below is a table, in million bpd:

	Supply Baseline	Agreed Cut	New Target	Jun 2019 Supply	June Compliance	Spare Capacity vs June Supply
Algeria	1,06	0,032	1,03	1,01	147%	0,04
Angola	1,53	0,047	1,48	1,4	272%	0,1
Congo	0,33	0,01	0,32	0,35	-250%	0
Ecuador	0,52	0,016	0,51	0,53	-38%	0,01
Equatorial Guinea	0,13	0,004	0,12	0,11	425%	0,01
Gabon	0,19	0,006	0,18	0,22	-550%	-0,02
Iraq	4,65	0,141	4,51	4,72	-48%	0,18
Kuwait	2,81	0,085	2,72	2,68	152%	0,25
Nigeria	1,65	0,053	1,6	1,77	-226%	0,02
Saudi Arabia	10,63	0,322	10,31	9,77	268%	2,25
UAE	3,17	0,096	3,07	3,06	113%	0,33
OPEC total 11	26,66	0,812		25,62	128%
OPEC countries not participating in deal
Iran				2,28
Libya				1,13
Venezuela				0,88
OPEC total
Non-OPEC
Azerbaijan	0,8	0,02	0,78	0,77	140%
Bahrain	0,22	0,005	0,21	0,21	120%
Brunei	0,12	0,003	0,11	0,12	-1%
Kazakhstan	2,03	0,04	1,99	2,03	-3%
Malaysia	0,7	0,015	0,68	0,7	-41%
Mexico	1,99	0,04	1,95	1,9	222%
Oman	1	0,025	0,98	0,98	99%
Russia	11,75	0,23	11,52	11,49	114%
Sudan	0,07	0,002	0,07	0,07	95%
South Sudan	0,12	0,003	0,12	0,15	-985%
Total non-OPEC	18,8	0,383	18,41	18,42	98%