30 Sep 2019 14:19

VIEWPOINT: Ruble still has every chance to remain among most attractive EM currencies - RDIF

MOSCOW. Sept 30 (Interfax) - As far as fundamental factors are concerned, the ruble has every chance to remain among the most attractive EM currencies amid increased global risks due to its strong fundamental indicators, high interest rates and continued prospects of a monetary easing by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) head analyst Dmitry Polevoi said in a commentary.

"The only reservation is the reaction to events by leading portfolio investors, which maintain significant ruble and ruble-denominated OFZ positions," the expert said. "Thus far, there is no indication that the paradigm has changed, but risks remain. As for local currents, payment of profit taxes on Monday are not likely to reflect strongly on the ruble exchange rates, we expect 64.25-64.75/$1," the analyst said.

The ruble's prospects in the short term will be determined by global trends, and first and foremost, the dynamics of the offshore yuan (CNH) exchange rate and the rates of principal EM currencies as indicators of the behavior of global investors. The conclusion of the month and quarter could also have an impact, injecting some volatility, Polevoi said.

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