7 Nov 2019 17:27

Russian GDP could grow 1.2%-1.3% in Q1 2020 - CBR department head

MOSCOW. Nov 7 (Interfax) - Russian GDP could grow 1.2%-1.3% year-on-year in Q1 2020, the head of the Central Bank's Research and Forecasting Department, Alexander Morozov, told reporters.

"The quarter-on-quarter figure would be 0.3% so year-on-year it would be 1.2%-1.3%. You wouldn't say this is a high rate of growth but it is higher than we have seen this year," he said.

Quarterly Russian GDP growth estimates indicate that GDP growth in full-year 2019 is likely to be at the level of around 0.8%-1%, which is near the lower threshold of the regulator's forecast, the CBR said in its latest Talking Trends bulletin on November 6. The Central Bank's official GDP growth forecast for 2019 was 0.8%-1%, while the Economic Development Ministry's forecast was 1.3%.

"A gradual increase in GDP growth rates is expected in Q1 2020. The current index estimate for the nearest quarters does not factor into its model the possible additional impulse from accelerated budget spending, which already began in Q3 2019," CBR analysts said.