7 Feb 2020 14:23

Central Bank of Russia publishes updated medium-term forecast

(technical repeat, inflation figure in table 1 adjusted)

MOSCOW. Feb 7 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia has published its updated medium-term forecast following the board's key rate meeting on February 7:

Forecast scenarios (growth as % of previous year, if not indicated otherwise) published on February 7 compared with previous scenarios published on December 13 (in parentheses):

2020 2021 2022
Urals price, average for the year, US dollars per barrel 55(55) 50 (50) 50 (50)
Inflation, as % in December year-on-year 3,5-4,0 (3,5-4,0) 4,0 (4,0) 4,0 (4,0)
GDP 1,5-2,0 (1,5-2,0) 1,5-2,5 (1,5-2,5) 2,0-3,0 (2,0-3,0)
Money supply in national definition 7-12 (7-12) 7-12 (7-12) 7-12 (7-12)
Claims on organizations and households 7-12 (7-12) 7-12 (7-12) 7-12 (7-12)

Russia's balance of payments indicators (billion USD):

2020 2021 2022
CURRENT ACCOUNT 47(52) 30(34) 18(23)
Balance of trade 136 (138) 122 (122) 115 (116)
Export 395 (392) 388 (385) 392 (392)
Import 259 (254) 266 (263) 277 (277)
Balance of services -36(-35) -38(-37) -42(-40)
Export 64(63) 65(65) 67(67)
Import 100 (98) 103 (101) 107 (107)
Balance of primary and secondary income -53(-51) -54(-52) -55(-53)
CURRENT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNT BALANCE 47(52) 30(34) 18(34)
FINANCIAL ACCOUNT (excluding reserve assets) -9(-14) -4(-9) -4(-9)
Government and the central bank 6(6) 6(6) 6(6)
Private sector -15(-20) -10(-15) -10(-15)
CHANGE IN RESERVE ASSETS 38(38) 25(25) 14(14)