Russia's GDP grows 0.8% in 9M, full-year growth could exceed 0.6% forecast - Econ Ministry

MOSCOW. Nov 13 (Interfax) - Russia's GDP growth for January-September 2026 is estimated at 0.8%, the Russian Economic Development Ministry said in a commentary on the provisional GDP data for the third quarter, published by the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on Friday.

The ministry said Q3 growth was higher than its own preliminary estimates, and growth for the full year might be slightly higher than the current official forecast of 0.6%.

"According to Rosstat's provisional estimate, GDP grew 1.0% year-on-year in Q3 2026, slightly higher than Economic Development Ministry's estimate based on preliminary data, after rising 1.3% year-on-year in Q2. The economy grew 0.8% year-on-year in 9M 2026," the ministry said.

The ministry had previously forecast 0.6% growth for Q3 and 0.6% for 9M 2026 also.

"The Russian economy continues to develop, despite external challenges and restrictions. According to preliminary data, GDP growth in the third quarter was driven by domestic demand and individual sectors of the real economy. Manufacturing grew, with the machinery and metallurgical sectors making the main contributions. The construction sector returned to growth, and freight transport continued to rise," the ministry said.

"The provisional Rosstat estimate suggests GDP growth for 2026 could prove to be a little higher than the current forecast. Going forward, growth will depend on the pace of structural changes within the economy and the effective implementation of national projects," the ministry said.

The Econ Ministry in October raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% from 0.4% in its May forecast.

The Central Bank in October narrowed its forecast range for GDP growth in 2026 to 0.5%-1.0% from the 0.0%-1.0% it was predicting in July, effectively suggesting growth of 0.7%-0.8% is most likely for the year.

Analysts told Interfax in early November that 0.6% GDP growth for 2026 was likely, up from 0.5% in the previous month's survey.

The analysts expect 1.2% growth in 2027, the Econ Ministry - 1.4% and Central Bank of - 1.0%-2.0%.