Uzbekistan's current account deficit to grow 26% in 2026 - ING

TASHKENT. Oct 22 (Interfax) - ING Group forecasts Uzbekistan's current account deficit at $7.2 billion or 4% of GDP in 2026 compared to $5.7 billion in 2025, ING said in a CEEMEA report.

The deficit could therefore widen by 26.3%.

The deficit might grow to $9 billion (4.4% of GDP) in 2027 and to $9.6 billion (4.2% of GDP) in 2028.

Uzbekistan's trade deficit could be $16.2 billion in 2026 compared to $15.5 billion in 2025, increasing to $17 billion in 2027 and $17.6 billion in 2028.

ING forecasts Uzbekistan's GDP will grow 8% this year, 6.7% in 2027 and 6.3% in 2028.

"Uzbekistan's GDP growth has been exceptionally strong recently, supported by domestic demand catching up from a low base. While activity is expected to moderate from the current above-potential levels, Uzbekistan should remain one of the fastest-growing economies in emerging markets. Strong investment spending, industrial activity and ongoing reforms continue to support expansion, while positive demographic trends provide an additional tailwind. A gradual slowdown in the GDP growth is likely to reflect normalisation in the activity trends, with growth remaining comfortably above regional peers. Uzbekistan's challenge is increasingly one of managing overheating pressures rather than finding additional sources growth in consumption and investment," ING said.

Nominal GDP will reach $181 billion in 2026, compared to $147 billion in 2025, then $208 billion in 2027 and $229 billion in 2028.

ING said Uzbekistan retained investment appeal, thanks to strong and diversified growth, continued reforms and positive sovereign-credit momentum. At the same time, longer-term vulnerabilities stem from persisting twin deficits, continued high state involvement in the economy and a long history of above-target inflation.

"Over the past couple of years, inflation in Uzbekistan has moderated substantially from previous highs, aided by the recent fiscal consolidation, and this has created room for a cautious monetary policy easing cycle. However, current CPI remains above the central bank's long-term objective, while strong domestic demand, administrative tariff adjustments and global food and commodity risks argue against aggressive rate cuts. We therefore expect the central bank to deliver only gradual easing from a still-restrictive level. Real rates remain relatively attractive and should continue to support macro stability," the report says.