Analysts raise forecast for Russia's GDP, inflation in 2026, raise estimate of neutral rate level for first time in long period - CBR survey

MOSCOW. Oct 14 (Interfax) - Analysts have raised the forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2026 to 0.6% from 0.5% previously and raised the forecast for inflation to 7.1% from 6.6%, according to a survey conducted by the Central Bank of Russia.

Expectations for the average key rate in 2026 also rose slightly, to 14.6% from 14.5%.

GDP growth is forecast at 1.2% in 2027 (forecast unchanged), 1.6% in 2028 (previously 1.7%), and 1.8% in 2029 (expectations unchanged).

The inflation forecast for 2027 was raised to 5.0% from 4.6% and to 4.2% for 2028 (previously: the target 4.0%), and it remained at 4.0% for 2029.

Analysts forecast a more gradual easing of monetary policy in the next three-year period. The average rate is expected at 12.8% in 2027 (previously 12.4%), 10.8% in 2028 (previously 10.0%) and 9.2% in 2029 (previously 8.6%).

For the first time in a long time, experts also raised their estimate of the neutral rate level, to 8.5% from 8%.

The forecast for the oil price for taxation in 2026 was raised to $70/bbl from $64/bbl in the August survey, to $59/bbl in 2027 from $56/bbl, and to $57/bbl in 2028 from $56/bbl. In 2029, analysts expect the oil price at $56/bbl (forecast unchanged).

Economists adjusted their expectations for the ruble exchange rate. The forecast for 2026 was raised slightly to 80.0 rubles/$1 from 79.9 rubles/$1 rubles previously, to 89.4 rubles/$1 (88.8 rubles/$1 rubles previously) for 2027, and to 94.8 rubles/$1 rubles for 2028 (94.0 rubles/$1 rubles previously). In 2029, they forecast the rate at 96.4 rubles/$1 (previously 97.2 rubles/$1).

The survey was conducted on October 9-13, 2026. A total of 32 economists from various organizations took part.