Russian govt makes new amendments to development strategy for agriculture, fisheries industries

MOSCOW. Oct 13 (Interfax) - The Russian government has approved new amendments to the development strategy for the agriculture and fisheries industries until 2030, according to an order signed on October 9, 2026 and posted on the official legal information portal.

The updated strategy has a baseline and a conservative scenario, as did the one which was in place prior to this and was updated in December 2025. The amendments mainly concern the indicators for 2026 and 2027.

According to the baseline scenario, agricultural production will grow 12.7% between 2021 and 2026, versus 5.5% in the conservative scenario. The previous strategy predicted 13.8% and 5.5% respectively. For 2027, the baseline scenario predicts growth of 14.5%, versus the previous 15.8%, while the conservative scenario predicts 7.3%, unchanged. The growth forecasts for 2028-2030 have been left unchanged at 18.5% and 9.3% for 2028, 22% and 11.2% for 2029 and 25% - the target set by the Russian president - and 13.5% for 2030.

Export targets for agricultural produce were only changed for the conservative scenario. They are now expected to reach $42.2 billion in the baseline scenario and $38.3 billion in the conservative scenario, down from the previous $40.5 billion, in 2026, $44 billion and $41.2 billion, versus a previous $42.6 billion, in 2027, $47.1 billion and $46.1 billion in 2028, $51.1 billion in both scenarios in 2029 and $55.2 billion in both in 2030. These figures align with the goal set by the president to increase exports 50% compared with 2021.

Forecasts for investments in fixed assets in both industries in 2026 were adjusted - they are now expected to grow 4.8% compared with 2020 in the conservative scenario, versus the previous forecast of 4.5%, and 5.5% in the baseline scenario, the same as the previous forecast. The figures for subsequent years were also left unchanged, at 6.6% and 5.4% respectively in 2027, 8.1% and 5.9% in 2028, 10% and 6.4% in 2029 and 12.2% and 7% in 2030.

Both scenarios forecast the area of agricultural land brought into use in 2026 at 4.148 million hectares, compared with a previous 6.745 million ha in the baseline scenario and 4.243 million ha in the conservative scenario, and 5.501 million ha in 2027, versus the previous 8.043 million ha and 5.595 million ha respectively. The predictions for 2028 were left unchanged at 9.341 million ha and 8.142 million ha respectively. In 2030, the indicator should increase to 13.235 million ha in both scenarios, as stipulated by the Land federal program.

Both scenarios forecast the harvest of fish and other water-based bioresources at 4.705 million tonnes in 2026, versus 5.126 million tonnes in the baseline scenario and 4.95 million tonnes in the conservative scenario previously, 4.9 million tonnes in 2027, versus the previous 5.355 million tonnes and 5.1 million tonnes respectively, 4.95 million tonnes in 2028, versus 5.387 million tonnes and 5.08 million tonnes previously, 5.1 million tonnes in 2029, versus 5.508 million tonnes and 5.1 million tonnes, and 5.15 million tonnes in 2030, versus 5.5 million tonnes and 5.15 million tonnes.

The most significant changes were to aquaculture indicators. The updated strategy predicts this industry's output at 391,000 tonnes in the baseline scenario and 388,000 tonnes in the conservative scenario in 2026, versus the previous respective predictions of 432,000 tonnes and 420,000 tonnes, at 401,000 tonnes and 393,000 tonnes in 2027, versus the previous 479,000 tonnes and 440,000 tonnes, 414,000 tonnes and 404,000 tonnes in 2028, versus 526,000 tonnes and 460,000 tonnes, 427,000 and 414,000 tonnes in 2029, versus 573,000 tonnes and 480,000 tonnes, and 446,000 tonnes and 426,000 tonnes in 2030, versus 618,000 tonnes and 502,000 tonnes.

The updated strategy also introduces labor productivity as a new indicator, which it expects to grow 6% compared with 2023 in the baseline scenario and 4% in the conservative scenario, and 12.6% and 10% respectively in 2030.

Import substitution forecasts have been left unchanged. The share of domestically selected seeds is expected to reach 75% by 2030, from 64% in 2026, 66% in 2027, 66.5% in 2028 and 70% in 2029. Russian-produced veterinary medicines are expected to make up 70% of the total supplied to the livestock production sector in 2030, from 58% in 2026, 62% in 2027, 65% in 2028 and 68% in 2029. Russian vaccines should make up 61% of total supply in 2030, 53% in 2026, 55% in 2027, 57% in 2028 and 59% in 2029.

The Russian government approved the development strategy for the agriculture and fisheries industries until 2030 on September 8, 2022.