Russia will increase production in bioeconomy by more than 33.3%, exports will triple by 2036 - strategy
MOSCOW. Oct 6 (Interfax) - The baseline scenario for the development of the Russian bioeconomy assumes that output will grow 35% from 1.95 trillion rubles in 2026 to 2.63 trillion rubles by 2036 with investments in fixed assets totaling 1.045 trillion rubles, it says in a government-approved industry development strategy to 2036 and until 2050.
In 2025, production in the biotech industry was estimated to have a gross added value of 1.9 trillion rubles. The Industry and Trade Ministry said that biotechnology enterprises increased production 3.12% and exports 14.96% in the first nine months of 2026.
In the long term, the approved strategy targets the gross added value of biotechnology production at 4.55 trillion rubles by 2050, with investments of 1.81 trillion rubles.
The bioeconomy is expected to make up a 74.6% share of consumption of Russian-made high-tech products by 2036, and 82.7% by 2050. The share is forecast at 41.9% for 2026 and stood at 39.5% in 2025.
Exports of high-tech biotechnology products from Russia should reach $2.03 billion by 2036 and $3.51 billion by 2050 under the baseline scenario. The baseline scenario predicts growth of 2.86% to $0.72 billion this year, compared with $0.7 billion in 2025.
The baseline scenario for the development of the industry "is characterized by the stabilization of the macroeconomic situation, steady growth in the biotechnology solutions market and the partial removal of regulatory restrictions". This scenario expects existing government programs to be implemented, funding to be increased moderately and regulatory barriers to be partially lifted.
The high-tech, research-intensive bioeconomy is expected to make up 4% of Russia's GDP by 2036, with investments at 1%-1.5% of GDP and overall average annual GDP growth of 4%.
The shifting focus towards markets in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and BRICS is expected to ease external pressure; however, this will not solve the problem of the systemic technological lag. The strategy aims to bring Russia gradually closer towards obtaining technological sovereignty in the bioeconomy by offering selective support to key areas and incentivizing the localization of biotechnology and critical biocomponent production.
The strategy's "inertia" scenario involves minimal demand growth for products of the bioeconomy and continued technological dependence, an absence of significant incentives and ongoing regulatory restrictions. In this scenario, investments will not exceed 1% of GDP and the high-tech and research-intensive bioeconomy will account for no more than 1%-2% of GDP by 2036, with overall average annual GDP growth also at 1%-2%.
Under the strategic or target scenario, Russia's bioeconomy will achieve technological sovereignty more quickly through intensive investment in research and development, scaling up projects and localizing biotechnology and critical biocomponent production, as well as the formation of integrated bioinfrastructure in Russian regions. In this scenario, investments in the bioeconomy will reach 1.5%-2% of GDP, allowing overall average annual GDP growth to reach 6% and the share of GDP made up by the high-tech and research-intensive bioeconomy to reach 6% by 2036, potentially increasing to 8% by 2050.
The strategy cites data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which estimates the volume of the global bioeconomy at $5.8-6.2 trillion and forecasts that this will grow to $15-20 trillion by 2050, bringing the industry into the top three leading sectors of the world economy behind the financial and IT sectors. The U.S. occupies the biggest share of this market, at 42%-45%, followed by China with 25%-28% and the EU with 24%. The Russian bioeconomy currently makes up less than 1% of the global market.
The Russian Industry and Trade Ministry has estimated that Russia's bioproduct market could potentially grow to over 700 billion rubles by 2030, from the current 480 billion rubles in 2025, with the potential to increase to 1 trillion rubles by 2036.
