Central Bank of Russia to assess scope for key rate cuts when reviewing forecast in Oct
MOSCOW. Sept 15 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia will assess how much room there is for lowering the key rate in its next forecast round in October, head of the CBR monetary policy department Andrei Gangan told journalists at the sidelines of the RBC Capital Markets forum.
"The Central Bank of Russia will review its forecast in October, we will see. The July forecast allowed for the key rate being held until the end of the year, as well as a small rate cut," Gangan said, asked whether there would be some room for lowering the rate in December, as some analysts believe, or sooner.
The CBR held the rate at 14% per annum in September and gave a neutral monetary policy signal.
"On the whole, there was a broad consensus on maintaining a neutral [signal at the September meeting]," Gangan said.
"I will say this: we did not change the signal. The decision that was made fitted into the July forecast, and therefore, conclusions that the signal was somehow explicitly changed are the interpretations of the analyst community," he said.
Gangan did not answer a question about whether the Central Bank might revise its 2026 inflation forecast in October from the 6%-7% it was forecasting in July. He said inflation was currently within the baseline forecast.
Asked about the risk of inflation exceeding the forecast's upper limit of 7% by the end of the year, Gangan said: "There are always risks. We take note of this, but this will no longer be the baseline forecast."
Russia's GDP growth in the third quarter also aligns with the Central Bank's forecast.
Gangan also said the need to further assess incoming data was partly behind the pause in rate cuts in September.
"This is partly why the Central Bank paused them in September, to get a better understanding, based on incoming data, about whether we are following the baseline scenario and whether the key assumptions behind the baseline forecast are materializing. We need more data, which we'll analyze in October, then we'll update our baseline forecast," Gangan said.
