Central Bank of Russia's 3-year budget forecast quite conservative, risks of exceeding deficit forecast low - CBR dept head

MOSCOW. Sept 15 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia assesses the parameters of the federal budget for the next three-year period quite conservatively, and the probability of exceeding its forecast for the primary structural deficit is small, the director of the CBR's Monetary Policy Department Andrei Gangan said.

"You know, it seems to me that this time we approached it quite conservatively from the point of view of, so to speak, parameterizing the budget forecast for the next three-year period. So in this sense, let's say, the probability of exceeding these parameters in fact is already lower than how we thought about it at the beginning of the year, for example," Gangan said at the RBC Capital Markets 2026 forum.

CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina previously said that the regulator assumes a primary structural deficit of the federal budget of 2% of GDP for 2026, 1% for 2027 and 0.5% for 2028. The Central Bank has formed its own estimate of the possible primary structural deficit of the Russian budget, given that actual expenditures already exceed the Finance Ministry's initial forecast, but will adjust the estimate after the government presents an updated macroeconomic forecast and budget parameters.

"We previously included a zero deficit, as stated in the basic budget parameters. But the Finance Ministry has already said this will probably remain zero until 2028 inclusive, and we cannot factor in a zero balance. So this time we have come up with our own assessment of the possible trajectory of the budget balance, the primary structural budget balance," Nabiullina said.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov previously said that the draft federal budget for the next three-year period should envisage reaching a zero structural deficit by 2029.