Tajikistan's economy grows 8.2% in H1 2026 - EDB
DUSHANBE. Sept 7 (Interfax) - Tajikistan's economy grew 8.2% year-on-year in H1 2026, with the main factors of growth being an increase in exports, investment and consumer activity, as well as growth in manufacturing, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) said in the September issue of its Macroeconomic Review.
According to the bank, Tajikistan's exports increased by a record 65.4% YoY in January-June 2026, while investments in fixed capital grew 18.4%.
The EDB forecasts Tajikistan's GDP growth at 8.3% this year.
Overall, the economy of the EDB's region of operations remains resilient amid the global energy shock, the bank said. The region's aggregate GDP grew 1.5% YoY in H1 2026 after growing 2% in 2025. At the same time, the economies of the Central Asian countries grew 6%.
The main support for economic activity in the region is provided by domestic demand, investment and the implementation of infrastructure projects.
At the same time, inflationary pressure in the region remains elevated. In the middle of the year, inflation stood at 6.4% compared to 6.5% at the end of 2025. The rise in global prices for energy and food has led, in particular, to an acceleration of inflation in Tajikistan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.
Against this background, the National Bank of Tajikistan is maintaining restrictive monetary conditions. The refinancing rate has been kept at 7% since January 2026.
The central banks of other countries in the region are generally maintaining relatively tight monetary conditions. In Armenia, the refinancing rate is 6.5%, in Belarus it is 9.25%, in Kyrgyzstan it is 12%, in Uzbekistan it is 14% and in Kazakhstan it is 16.25%.
The EDB is a multilateral development bank that carries out investment activities in the Eurasian space. By the end of 2025, the EDB's portfolio comprised 326 projects with a total investment of $19.6 billion. The EDB unites Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. Tajikistan is not a member state of the EDB, but the bank includes the country in its regional macroeconomic analysis.
