Central Bank of Russia lowers forecast for consumer loan growth in 2027 to 3%-8% due to impact of monetary policy, tighter macroprudential limits

MOSCOW. Sept 2 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered its forecast for consumer loan growth in 2027 to 3%-8% from 6%-11% previously; the new dynamics reflect not only the impact of monetary conditions, but also tighter macroprudential limits, according to the Central Bank's analytical review of the banking sector.

Expectations for consumer loan growth in 2026 remained at 4%-8%.

In July, the Central Bank maintained its forecast for corporate lending growth in Russia in 2026 in the range of 7%-11%, and for retail lending growth at 5%-9% (including mortgage growth at 6%-10%). At the same time, the regulator lowered its forecasts for 2027, according to which corporate lending will increase 7%-12% (previously, growth of 8%-13% was expected), retail lending 5%-10% (instead of 8%-13%), and mortgage growth will amount to 7%-12% (10%-15% previously).

"In 2027, we expect that the growth rates of corporate lending will be more moderate against the backdrop of a smoother easing of monetary conditions than previously assumed," the CBR said.

"The forecast range for 2026 for household mortgage debt remained unchanged (6%-10%). For 2027, we lowered it by 3 percentage points to 7%-12%, taking into account the planned tightening of the terms of the Family Mortgage program, as well as a more gradual recovery in demand for market-rate mortgages," the CBR said.