Growth of Russian economy may slow in Q3 due to temporary loss of capacity in production, logistics - Central Bank analysts

MOSCOW. Sept 1 (Interfax) - The growth of the Russian economy in Q2 2026 turned out to be higher than expected, but in Q3 it may slow down due to the temporary loss of capacity in production and logistics, but not due to a slowdown in demand, according to the Talking Trends bulletin prepared by the Central Bank's Research and Forecasting Department.

"After growth in the second quarter [1.3% year-on-year], which exceeded expectations, GDP returned to the high level of the fourth quarter of 2025. A slowdown in the growth of the Russian economy is possible in the third quarter. It may arise primarily due to the temporary loss of capacity in production and logistics (that is, the supply of goods and services), and not as a result of a slowdown in demand," the CBR said.

Increased activity in the corporate lending and household consumption segments in July-August supports the conclusion that domestic demand in the Russian economy continues to grow, the CBR's analysts said.

"The results of August business surveys indicate an improvement in assessments of economic dynamics in general, which gives grounds to expect further growth in demand and GDP in the third quarter," the CBR said.

"The consumer sector, along with part of the manufacturing industries oriented towards government orders, continues to remain a key factor in the growth of the Russian economy. At the same time, the slowdown in wage dynamics following the gradual normalization of the labor market creates conditions for a smoother but more sustainable growth in household consumption going forward," the CBR said.