VTB not expecting to make significant additional loan provisions due to attacks on marketplace infrastructure - exec
MOSCOW. Aug 28 (Interfax) - Marketplaces will be able to cope with the impact of the attacks on their logistics infrastructure thanks to sustained consumer demand, tax measures and reduced discounts, and VTB does not expect to make significant additional provisions on their loans, despite a possible short-term deterioration in the financial performance of online platforms, VTB First Deputy CEO Dmitry Pyanov told reporters.
Several large Wildberries & Russ logistics facilities in various regions of Russia have been damaged as a result of drone attacks since July 18. Several Ozon logistics facilities have been damaged since August 22.
The situation with marketplace logistics infrastructure could lead to a short-term decline in revenue and credit quality, but even in a stress scenario, it merely moves these borrowers from the premium category to the standard category under current macroeconomic conditions, Pyanov said.
"Different events affect the banking sector to varying degrees. The primary factor for banks is the loss of significant warehouse space. Replacing this lost space will require investment and will affect free cash flow. The second factor is the loss of own goods and the goods of sellers. The third is the restructuring of logistics infrastructure, which will require investment and impact EBITDA margins. Some decline in these metrics will be seen in 2027, but this will not result in exponential growth in the companies' debt," he said.
"Why do we believe these extraordinary events will be manageable for marketplaces, and what will drive recovery investments and investments in restructuring logistics routes? First, this is sustained consumer demand and efforts by marketplaces to meet it. Second, the tax measures approved by the government, and this is a powerful measure. Finally, the normalization of price competition will lead to a reduction in discounts from marketplaces to end consumers, which will also become a significant source of recovery investments," Pyanov said.
The marketplaces themselves have not requested loan restructuring, only sellers have, he said. Restructuring requests from sellers to VTB are estimated at hundreds of millions of rubles. "This is a small amount for a bank's balance sheets, although significant in terms of the impact on people's lives," Pyanov said.
He said VTB did not expect to make significant additional loan provisions. "In terms of IFRS reserve modeling, short-term declines will be recovered over the medium and long term. In terms of prudential reserves, the Bank of Russia has established that affected sellers and marketplace companies are exempt from classifying their restructuring as being enforced until the end of this year and, de facto, from further prudential provisions, so this factor has a weaker impact on the banking sector," he said.
