Moldovan authorities lower country's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.8%, worsen estimate for 2027-2029

CHISINAU. Aug 17 (Interfax) - The Moldovan Economic Development and Digitalization Ministry has again lowered its estimate of the country's GDP growth this year, now to 1.8%, according to materials on the ministry's website.

In early May, the ministry lowered its economic growth forecast for this year to 2% from 2.2%, and from 2.4% to 2.2% in early April.

According to the ministry's forecast, inflation will accelerate this year to 8.2% from 7% in 2025. In subsequent years, the ministry expects inflation to decline to 5%-6% and economic growth to recover, but at more moderate rates than previously expected. For 2027, GDP growth is projected at 2.8% (compared to 3.6% in the May forecast), while the economy may grow 3.2% in 2028 (4%) and 3.4% in 2029 (4.2%).

Industrial production growth is estimated at 5% and agricultural production growth at 7% this year, the ministry said.

"Economic development will continue to depend on the geopolitical and energy situation. New external shocks, extreme weather events or an escalation of conflicts in the region could affect investments, prices and household incomes," the Economy Ministry said.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Moldova's GDP growth rate will slow to 1.5% this year, while the World Bank expects growth of 1.9% and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects 2.8%.

The country's GDP grew 2.4% in 2025 after growing 0.1% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2023 and declining 5.9% in 2022.

Moldova's GDP grew 0.4% in Q1 2026.