National Bank of Moldova hikes refi rate to 7.5%, worsens inflation outlook

CHISINAU. Aug 6 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Moldova decided on Thursday to hike its base or refinancing rate from 7% to 7.5% per annum, the NBM said in a press release.

The NBM also raised the overnight lending rate from 9% to 9.5% per annum and the REPO rate from 7.25% to 7.75% per annum. It kept the reserve requirement ratios for attracted funds in the national currency and for funds attracted in foreign currency at 18% and 26%, respectively.

"Inflation is trending up this year, due to factors related to consumer demand amid persistent supply shocks, necessitating the continuation of restrictive monetary policy measures," the NBM said.

The regulator has worsened its inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 7.2% and 6.2%, respectively, from the 7% and 5.8% it was predicting in May. The NBM said in February that it was projecting average annual inflation of 5% this year and 4.5% next year.

The inflation forecast was worsened due to the stronger-than-expected impact of secondary effects from rising fuel prices amid the situation in the Middle East and an anticipated increase in domestic energy tariffs in Q3 2026. Higher global food prices and import inflation are also affecting prices in Moldova. "Annual inflation will trend up until the end of this year, and then begin to slow, returning to the target range (5% +/- 1.5 percentage points) in the third quarter of 2027," the NBM said.

The NBM hiked the base rate from 5% to 6.5% per annum due to accelerating inflation on May 7 and raised it to 7% on June 18.

Its next rate-setting meeting is scheduled for September 17.