Central Bank of Russia makes own primary structural budget deficit assessment, forecasts 2% of GDP in 2026, 1% in 2027 and 0.5% in 2028 - Nabiullina

MOSCOW. July 24 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia has formed its own estimate of the possible primary structural deficit of the Russian budget in 2026-2028, given that actual expenditures already exceed the Finance Ministry's initial forecast, but will adjust the estimate after the government presents an updated macroeconomic forecast and budget parameters.

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina told a press conference that the regulator had factored a primary structural deficit of 2% of GDP for 2026, 1% for 2027, and 0.5% for 2028 into its own assessment.

"We previously included a zero deficit, as stated in the basic budget parameters. But the Finance Ministry has already said this will probably remain zero until 2028 inclusive, and we cannot factor in a zero balance. So this time we have come up with our own assessment of the possible trajectory of the budget balance, the primary structural budget balance. The actual trajectory may take a different course. And the Finance Ministry - we know there is discussion underway in the government now - will probably unveil this in September, closer to October, perhaps even sooner. But we have projected this, based on the fact that this year's actual spending is significantly higher than initially planned. We have projected a primary structural deficit of 2% of GDP this year, 1% next year and 0.5% in 2028," Nabiullina said.

She said this was the Central Bank's estimate, "which will be adjusted after the government presents its updated forecast."

A federal budget deficit of 3.786 trillion rubles or 1.6% of GDP has been approved for 2026.

According to the updated expenditure plan in the Electronic Budget service in mid-July, actual federal budget expenditures for 2026 could reach 45.11 trillion rubles, compared to the 44.07 trillion rubles stipulated by law. The revenue forecast remains unchanged at 40.283 trillion rubles. On this basis, the planned deficit is 4.828 trillion rubles.

The Finance Ministry has said that according to preliminary data, there was a federal budget deficit of 5.731 trillion rubles or 2.5% of GDP in January-June 2026. Going by the ministry's own preliminary data for January-May, there was a surplus of 280 billion rubles for June. The Federal Treasury has said there was a deficit of 5.927 trillion rubles for January-May, so on that basis there was a surplus of 196 billion rubles for June.