Analysts lower Russian 2026 GDP growth forecast slightly, raise inflation outlook substantially

MOSCOW. July 15 (Interfax) - Analysts have lowered their GDP growth forecast for Russia in 2026 slightly, to 0.6% from 0.7%, but raised their inflation outlook substantially, to 6.2% from 5.3%, according to the latest Central Bank survey.

GDP is now expected to grow 1.3% in 2027, the previous forecast being 1.5%, and 1.7% and 1.8% in 2028 and 2029, respectively, unchanged.

The average key rate forecast for 2026 rises to 14.5% from 14.1%. The average key rate in 2027 is expected to be 12.2%, previously 10.6%, in 2028 - 10%, up from 9%, and in 2029 - 8.6%, up from 8.1%.

Expectations for the average oil price for tax purposes in 2026 have been lowered to $63 from $70/bbl in the May survey, to $58 from $60/bbl for 2027 and to $57 from $59/bbl for 2028. Analysts expect the oil price to be $57/bbl in 2029.

Analysts now forecast the average annual exchange rate for 2026 at 78.4 rubles/$1, compared with 78.1 rubles in the May survey, for 2027 at 86.6 rubles/$1, up from 86.2 rubles, for 2028 at 92.4 rubles/$1, down from 94.3 rubles, and for 2029 at 95.8 rubles/$1, down from 97.8 rubles.