Inflation in Russia in May could be below April's level - Sberbank head
ST. PETERSBURG. June 5 (Interfax) - Inflation in Russia in May could be below April's level, and Sberbank may lower its forecast from the current 6%-6.5%, the bank's head Herman Gref told journalists on the sidelines of the 2026 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF 2026).
"In terms of results for May, we expect inflation to be even lower than in April. Therefore, the forecast will most likely be lowered. Accordingly, all factors in general that are indicators of a rate cut are generally shaping up favorably," Gref said on the sidelines of Sberbank's business breakfast.
"Pressure on the labor market has eased. And inflation is significantly below expectations. So it seems to me that the Central Bank of Russia should react to this," he said.
The bank observes continued economic growth, but there are signs that it is necessary to transition to monetary policy easing, he said.
"Growth, thank God, continues. And in fact, the very fact that in the conditions in which we find ourselves, with such a strong ruble and high interest rates, the economy nevertheless continues to grow is very positive. We see an emerging trend toward the Central Bank's policy easing, and we will maintain our forecast until the end of the year - a rate of 12%," he said.
"It seems to us that the approximate line, the psychological line, at which businesses can begin to attract investment and start an investment cycle, is 10%-12%. That is the critical line that separates us from the investment cycle. The consequences of a long, fairly tight monetary policy have led to what we see today. Indeed, you are right, four consecutive quarters of falling investment - this is one of the alarming factors that is obviously a significant sign that it is probably necessary to move to a policy of easing," he said.
Sberbank has revised its oil price forecast, and in connection with this, changed its exchange rate forecast to 84-85 rubles/$1 from the previous 80-90 rubles/$1.
"Our understanding of the oil price has deviated very significantly. As has the deficit that has emerged in the market, which will most likely continue until the end of the current year. Even if the situation with the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is resolved, it will take about six months for key players and key countries to replenish reserves. Accordingly, the price will most likely remain at fairly high levels until the end of the year, which cannot but affect the exchange rate," Gref said.
